TheStockBandit.com

Good evening StockBandits!

Last week started out with some upside as Monday and Tuesday each saw the market post 1% gains.  However, the volume associated with the rebound and the lack of a greater surge higher left many bulls scratching their heads wondering “is this it?”  Wednesday brought indecision, which was soon followed by heavy distribution on Thursday which undercut the prior pullback lows from late January.

Friday’s action wasn’t much better – for a while anyway – as the indexes reached new depths on the pullback with the buyers again notably absent.  With just a couple hours left in the session though, the bears began to cover shorts and we saw a rapid ascent off the session lows, bringing the indexes back into positive territory by the closing bell.

Although the net changes were far from impressive, the fact that the indexes were each able to finish green does point to some short-term downside fatigue.  That in turn opens up the possibility for a relief bounce of some sort, which many stocks could benefit from.  The harsh selling off Wednesday’s highs left things in a rather oversold condition, so perhaps that’s in the process of getting relieved.  Follow through will be needed this week for a relief rally to stick for more than a day or two, so let’s see what happens.  I am sure not eager to short anything after Friday’s upside reversal though, at least until some better basing action occurs.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: GNW, CAGC, LYV, TLB, SHLD

Swing Trading Candidates:

SHLD has been grinding lower for a few weeks off its January high, and has now successfully filled the gap from early this year.  The stock set a new pullback low on Friday and then finished nicely positive, taking it back up to challenge the descending trend line.  A break above the trend line will trigger a buy for me at $92.50 as this one turns higher and gets clear of the declining resistance which has restricted the stock’s movement.

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Bullish Watch:

GNW, CAGC, SHLD, LYV, GRA, TLB, DV, TWC, LNCR, LXK

Bearish Watch:

PVH

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Following a 2-day bounce on less-than-impressive volume and a quiet day of churning yesterday, the sellers returned to the Street today in full force.  Pre-market weakness set the early tone, but no bounce attempt was ever made as the opening bell simply began a steady intraday downtrend with the indexes each undercutting last week’s lows to reach new depths on the current pullback.  By the closing bell, the indexes had given up 3%.

Today’s move not only reminds us that the correction from the January highs is still underway, but the volume which accompanied it points to heavy distribution taking place.  Light-volume pullbacks tend to occur during uptrends, suggesting only minor selling pressure is present.  Right now, however, we have ample evidence that the institutions are raising cash quickly in expectation of lower prices.

It’s important that you and I as traders continue to respect this decline, because it may not be done yet.  Today’s finish on the lows tells us the sellers simply ran out of time as they unloaded shares right up to the closing bell.  Regardless, the change of character noted here a couple of weeks ago is still playing out, and that means there’s no room for attempting to call the low or buy perceived bargains simply because stocks are cheaper than they were.  Stated otherwise, it’s an environment where cash is a great place to be, so I’m content tonight to have sidestepped this sharp decline.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: F, UTX, AVY, LH, PVH

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

EEV, TYP, SMN

Bearish Watch:

H, F, WLL, TECD, CAT, UTX, RINO, AVY, COH, DFS, ANR, BCS, LH, ARE, WYNN, AMZN, ED, RRD, RTH, PVH, AIG, LZ

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The rebound we’ve seen in the past couple of sessions paused today, although the indexes finished mixed and little-changed from yesterday’s closing levels.  The S&P 500 was the laggard with a 6-point decline, while the NAZ posted a fractional gain.  Given the volume on the bounce and the lack of overall upside progress (it’s only been a minor rebound toward the January highs), today’s stalled-out action may be suggesting another round of selling could be upon us sooner than later.

The dip-buyers clearly haven’t been comfortable of late, and if a 2-day bounce is all this market can put together after a 7% drop in 8 days, then there still isn’t much for the bulls to hang their hat on.  If the bounce is able to resume tomorrow, then I’ll certainly respect it and wait for another indication at a later date to indicate fatigue.  However, if we do see some sellers arrive on the scene tomorrow, it’s likely to prompt more cash-raising efforts by those holding some inventory.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: EEV, MHP, H, CAT, WDC, BTU

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

EEV, MHP, LYV, SMN, LEA, ILMN

Bearish Watch:

H, WLL, BHP, NFX, MCO, XCO, IOC, MT, COF, CAT, OIS, SWSI, AVY, RKT, COH, WDC, AVB, DFS, X, BTU, FLS, CERN

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Monday’s bounce left plenty to be desired for the bulls, as not only was it only able to recover a fraction of Friday’s decline, but the volume was light as well.  Today, that may have been of some benefit to stocks.  Rather than see the reversal which so often follows a big spike higher, the gradual rebound continued today.  An early test of the downside failed to entice the sellers, and a steady lift followed for the remainder of the session.  By the closing bell, the major averages were higher by another 1%, with the NAZ stopping just shy of that mark.

The complaint made by the bears is that the market had become very oversold and was due for a bounce.  Furthermore, the light volume and limited upside in price gives the impression it wouldn’t take much for this bounce to fail.  And those are valid arguments.  The bulls, on the other hand, are pointing to today’s follow through as a glimmer of hope that perhaps the worst is over.  To say the least, it should be an interesting battle these next few days as we see whether or not last week’s lows will be able to stick.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: XCO, IOC, UTX, ITRI, TECD, MCO, MNTA, SHLD, COF, CAT

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

MMR, UTHR, AMGN, GNTX, ACXM, SHLD, MCO, MNTA

Bearish Watch:

TTEK, KLAC, MOS, TECD, COF, ITRI, CAT, UTX

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market finally was able to put together a decent bounce today.  A positive tone developed early, although the morning price action was anything but smooth, with several spikes and selloffs taking place in the opening few hours.  However, the afternoon movement was gradually higher, leaving the market well in the green for the session.  While it was far from impressive, each of the major averages posted gains of 1% – the most upside we’ve seen since the highs were set in January.

A session like this is difficult to analyze all on its own.  Today’s bars were inside days on the charts with weak volume, making it difficult to trust at best.  At the same time, this market is in need of a multi-day bounce after the decline it’s seen, so we need to also be mindful of that and respect the bounce should it happen to find follow through tomorrow.  Sometimes a modest initial bounce can relieve concerns that the dust has settled and invite more buyers, so I’m going to see how this one plays out in the coming few days.

I am expecting the first multi-day bounce to result in a lower high on the daily charts once it happens.  If we do see a continued rebound, volume will remain a key factor in the character of the move, so I’ll be watching that closely as well.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: COH, CAT, UTX, COF, GES, NYX, DCP

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

COCO, PVX, GNW, MMR, PFCB, EL

Bearish Watch:

NYX, AVB, EQIX, BBY, COF, ITRI, GES, IOC, PCP, COH, DCP, CAT, NTES

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

With the previous week producing a dramatic turn lower from the recent highs, the market had an opportunity last week to put together a bounce attempt.  But it didn’t.  The buyers were nowhere in sight.  And rather than rebounding, stocks instead slid further, undercutting key short-term support levels in the process.  That constitutes follow through on the downside, which is something we’ve not seen in quite some time.

To see a change of character take place in this market comes as no surprise, given the fact that it trended higher for some 10 months.  What is surprising is the way in which this turn has unfolded, with the bulls not even putting up a fight.  Usually, the longer the trend, the more common it is to see a battle take place before a meaningful turn can occur.

My personal expectation for anything more than a modest pullback after such a lengthy uptrend would have been a failed bounce or two after some initial selling pressure.  However, that never happened in this case, and it’s essentially been a down elevator with only a brief pause early this past week.  The distribution that’s taking place is noteworthy, and it suggests this market might have a hard time building on the uptrend for at least a little while.

Whether that marks the top of the rally is not yet known, but one thing is for sure – the depth of this selloff certainly has opened the door for a lower high to get painted once the next bounce does play out.  For now, the sellers are dominating as the bulls raise cash, and despite the need for a market bounce, we must respect the short-term trend until signs emerge that it has exhausted itself.  It’s too early to get long, as the downdraft is still in motion, and yet initiating new short sales after a move of this magnitude entails much higher risk for any timeframe shorter than a few hours.  The bounce might be playable for quick flips, but the best bet for initiating new shorts is to wait for a bounce and then hit the stocks which have struggled to participate.

Needless to say, it should be yet another interesting week ahead of us!

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: PVX, AVB, PCP, COH, CYH, NYX

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

PVX, GCI, DPZ, MAPP, TRGL

Bearish Watch:

CRM, DSW, GFA, NTES, JLL, AVB, YGE, CSIQ, TSL, SLG, CYH, STP, PCP, COH, PWRD, GES, NYX

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

With Wednesday’s news and a night to sleep on it, traders woke up today once again in the mood for selling.  No motivation was found to put cash to work, so instead we saw more cash get raised as shares were shunned.  The lows of the session came midway through the day, and a slow grind higher set in for the afternoon.  However, the progress was limited and momentum was nowhere to be found as the buyers felt no urgent need for stocks.  As it became clear late in the day that the bounce was not going to erase much of the day’s losses, the bounce lost steam, leaving stocks not far off their lows of the day.

Today’s attention was mixed between yesterday’s news, speculation about FOMC Chief Bernanke being renominated for another term (which he was this afternoon), and tonight’s earnings reports from NAZ heavyweights AMZN and MSFT.  We’re right in the thick of earnings season, so the action in the limelight stocks of the day along with the market’s action since last week has been a combination for distraction in the last couple of sessions.

The big picture still points to a steep selloff and no rebound, which means the bulls have something to prove for the first time in quite a while.  Currently they’re disinterested, but once we do see a multi-day bounce, it should shed considerable light on the health of this market (which sure appears to have changed).

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: AVB, TSL, SLG, PCP, COH, M, GNW, UTHR, PVX, PWRD, JCG, CRM

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

GMCR, MAPP, GNW, MMR, UTHR, PVX

Bearish Watch:

SYNA, CRM, AVB, TUP, CSIQ, TSL, SLG, INFA, TIF, PCP, JEC, COH, M, OII, OSG, SPN, PWRD, GES, GOL, JCG

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A huge agenda today offered the market a number of things to focus on, from earnings reports to the FOMC to breaking news from tech leader AAPL, and of course tonight’s State of the Union address from the President.  That set the stage for plenty of knee-jerk reactions, and we could see more tomorrow as the market digests it all.

At the end of the day though, the market is still waiting for the bulls to produce some meaningful upside on the heels of the recent decline.  The market tends to move its own way and then find news to support it, and lately the sellers have dominated.  Even with all of today’s catalysts, the upside was modest in comparison to the slide of last week.  That isn’t to say we won’t see a continued bounce, but the longer we see the indexes rest after such a sizeable selloff and the slower the bulls are to act on depressed prices, the possibility is raised that we’ll see a continuation move to the downside.

Tonight there are quite a few bearish charts setting up due to the price action of the past several sessions.  The harsh decline and quiet rest phase we’ve seen since then is building bear flags, pennants, and wedges in many places.  Not all of them are ready to go, but the hesitation we’ve seen on the part of the bulls certainly opens the door for another wave of selling to arrive – unless they build aggressively on today’s minor bounce.  Therefore, caution is still warranted on the long side, particularly until better momentum surfaces.  I’m watching for weak bounces in individual stocks, both in terms of price and volume, but waiting to see if this market can rebound further before looking to press the short side.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: MMR, ILMN, AMED, PFCB, M, SPN, PWRD

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

MAPP, MMR, ILMN, MNTA, IT, AMED, PFCB

Bearish Watch:

CSIQ, TSL, SLG, GLD, AXP, BBY, TIF, MA, OII, OSG, SPN, PWRD

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Monday’s minor bounce after a sharp selloff last week pointed to a sudden lack of interest on the part of dip buyers – the group which has been so responsible for the continuation of the market uptrend which started last March.  Rather than stepping in to offer support, they were distinctly absent for a few days last week, presumably waiting for the selling to end.  But once some green was seen on Monday, they failed to get involved, leaving the market with only slight gains across the board.  That suggested the downward move might have more to go before a meaningful bounce is seen, as did yesterday’s inside bar after the trend move lower.  Today, those were validated with another weak session.

At one point this morning, we did see a rally off the lows unfold in a squeeze-like manner, but the pullback which followed that was met with more buying and new highs.  It looked like perhaps a relief bounce might finally be unfolding, but the strength stalled in the early afternoon and simply led to a rollover move which gave back the day’s gains.  In the end, minor losses were posted, which is more of a psychological blow to the bulls than a technical one.

Clearly it’s still a market which can’t be trusted on the long side yet, but today’s lack of a major move in either direction does help to offer another bar for consolidation purposes on the daily charts of many stocks – something which is badly needed in the construction of new tradeable patterns.  Shortened timeframes are still best heading into tomorrow, so stay sidelined if you’re not an intraday trader.  At some point we’re going to see some good opportunities emerge, but they aren’t here yet after this one-way move.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: IT, AMED, TIF, MA, OSG

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

CFN, IT, AMED, SWSI

Bearish Watch:

SY, TIF, TUP, SWC, EBIX, CXW, MTW, MA, ROK, WLL, OSG

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

With last week’s extreme selling pressure leaving the indexes somewhat oversold in the very short term, the market was poised for some kind of bounce heading into today’s session.  And that’s just what we got.  The only problem was that it was incredibly weak.  To say it failed to impress would be a huge understatement, so to be more blunt, it was downright pathetic.

Not only were the net changes by the closing bell just a drop in the bucket to what was lost last week, but at no time during today’s session was a real upside run even made.  We saw the market gap higher, but no momentum ever surfaced.  The S&P 500 modestly cleared its morning highs during the afternoon, but that only led to another round of selling which left the market limping to the finish line, ending the day only higher by a few points.

So tonight, we have a pair of elements which are worth noting – one psychological, and one technical.  The psychological element is that the bears suddenly feel alive again.  Not only did they have some downside follow through last week for the first time in quite a while, but the inability of the bulls to fight it is still incredibly lame.  That is confirmation that the character of this market is changing.  The technical element worth noting is that today’s bounce only produced an inside day on the daily charts.  Often when found within a trend, inside days lead to follow through, which doesn’t bode well for tomorrow.  After all, if today’s rebound was the best the bulls could muster after such a sharp decline in the previous sessions, then they’re likely to want to raise more cash in light of such a poor bounce (so far).

We do have an FOMC meeting on Wednesday which could be used as a catalyst for a move in either direction, depending of course on what the Fed says.  And traders may have been exercising caution today ahead of that, but it’s still got to be disheartening to the bulls to see last week’s downside slam get followed by such a meager gain today.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: PXP, SJT, AMLN, AMSC, CTRP, COH, MMR, GCI, IT, IVN, CXW, BTU

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

PXP, MMR, PRXL, TLB, SJT, GCI, IT, AMLN, JEC

Bearish Watch:

NFLX, IVN, CXW, DECK, CP, IMAX, M, BTU

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff