Good evening StockBandits!

Stocks headed higher right out of the gate this morning, but for 3 out of 4 indexes, the best levels of the day were seen early in the session.  Despite late-day bounces, only the DJIA was able to eclipse its morning high.  We saw a discrepancy between the blue chips and the small caps, as the DJIA and S&P both held their gains quite well, while the NAZ and RUT each barely finished in the green.

In looking through many charts tonight, I saw quite a few stocks which appear to be in danger of creating short-term lower highs if these bounces fizzle out.  That’s a result of the sharp pullback we saw last week, but also due to the pace of this bounce losing steam rapidly in many stocks.  If we should happen to see a little selling in the next day or two, it could quite easily lead to another slide.  And at the risk of stacking up “ifs,” should we see a turn lower from here, it could bring about a bigger shift in the prevailing mood of this market as we’d have a bounce getting sold for the first time in a while rather than simply another dip getting bought.

Another bar or two will do wonders for many stocks which are attempting to create new patterns, but as of tonight there simply aren’t a lot of mature setups yet.  The swift move lower early last week and then a few days of strength has left quite a few stocks with V-shaped rebounds, so a bit of basing would be ideal.  Regardless of which way we go, the market is acting more lively at this point, and that’s very good for us as traders.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: CVX, IO, FDX, JNPR, TIF, AA

Swing Trading Candidates:

AA recently failed its breakout after making new highs, and rolled over sharply.  Over the past few sessions, it has bounced back slightly, but volume has diminished and this chart may soon have a lower high.  I’m watching the rising wedge pattern for a possible confirmation, which would take place with a break of the lower rising trend line at $16.60.  I’ll go short if that break occurs, and will be looking for a second leg lower to begin. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Bullish Watch:

CVX, XOM, IMO, CNQ, RES, IO, DVN, MOBI, TLM, COP, SGI

Bearish Watch:

X, MAN, DE, EXPD, SVVS, SINA, CMI, DLB, AA, TEX, HSC, BIDU, CCL, SCCO, FDX, GR, JNPR

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

For a holiday-shortened trading week, last week proved interesting as Middle East concerns over the previous weekend delivered a sizeable downside gap to kick off trading Tuesday.  That was followed by further selling pressure into Thursday, before a relief rally finally arrived.  The indexes finished off their lows Thursday and then posted across-the-board gains Friday, but for the week the major averages gave up 2%.

In the big picture, that’s certainly not a lot.  We’ve been rallying since March of 2009, with the most recent leg having started on September 1 of last year.  It’s been quite a while since we saw anything but dips getting bought, and this one may prove to be the same as all previous pullbacks.  What’s a little different is the fact that in the short term, we’ve not seen a multi-day pullback since mid-January, so that may keep traders on heightened alert in the days ahead.

The situation in the Middle East could still escalate further, so the bulls aren’t free from worry just yet.  What they do have is an established uptrend and opponents (bears) who have little confidence at this point.  That could result in a trading range up here for a little while, which is my hunch at the moment.

I expect the day-to-day action to remain headline-sensitive for a little longer, but now that we’ve gotten an initial pullback and a bit of a rebound, it could keep the volatility up and that’s good for trading.  Last week I kept my timeframe shortened to day trading, but am expecting this week we’ll see more swing setups emerge and provide some multi-day moves.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: GPOR, DVN, WCG, FDX, OXY

Swing Trading Candidates:

OXY recently left a multi-week base to head higher, and last week we saw this one pull back just slightly to find support above that prior resistance zone.  That’s technically positive, and now I’ve got my eye on this consolidation.  A push past the upper descending trend line at $103.45 will trigger a buy for me, as that could free up this stock to head higher once again. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Bullish Watch:

NXPI, ATW, TSO, CNQ, OXY, PXD, BHI, OAS, PTEN, DVN, DAN, GMCR, NBR, WNR, TLM, CVE, SLW, GPOR, WCG, WOOF, HS, BP

Bearish Watch:

TIF, CMI, AIG, FCX, WLT, BIDU, WMS, FDX, GR, MELI, SCCO

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market attempted to stabilize today, but it sure wasn’t an impressive effort on the part of the bulls.  New pullback lows were set in the S&P and DJIA, while the NAZ and RUT each respected and held above Wednesday’s lows.  In the end, the indexes finished mixed and little-changed.

The one bright spot in today’s session was the fact that we did finish off the lows of the day, thanks to some afternoon buying in the final 2 hours of the day.  It may be that this market had simply become short-term sold out and it was time for shorts to cover, but today’s reduced volume doesn’t imply the buyers were doing much – after all, they’ve been missing all week long.

As we head into tomorrow’s session, I’m averse to new swing trades.  Most charts are simply in poor shape and need a little more time before the patterns are sufficient enough to warrant multi-day trades.  For me, the smaller the pattern, the shorter the timeframe for that trade will be, and tonight the patterns which are setting up I just don’t trust for anything but day trades.  Additionally, we could come in on Monday morning to a sizeable gap in either direction should we happen to see any significant events in the Middle East over the weekend.  That makes holding over the weekend more of an earnings-announcement-like coin-toss, which I strictly avoid for the sake of risk management.

There are some setups I like for quick plays on Friday, but other than that I think it’s best to maintain a cash position and wait for more technical clues to emerge – and they will soon, one way or another.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: PXD, MERC, MTW, GMCR, FST

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

SRZ, MTW, NXPI, SD, YOKU, KLAC, XEC, KEG, PXD, SM, LDK, MERC, MAKO, DVN, DAN, BGCP, GMCR

Bearish Watch:

CIT, DLB, FST

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

This morning the futures were near the flat line as the opening bell rang, and it appeared that perhaps stocks would put in a day of rest after yesterday’s punishment.  That wasn’t to be the case though, as a minor bounce marked the highs of the day just 15 minutes later, before another wave of steady selling hit the tape.  The indexes bottomed out early in the afternoon and drifted a bit higher into the bell, but more technical damage was done and the pullback has deepened.

At this point, we are a bit short-term stretched to the downside, particularly considering the sudden shift of direction these past two days.  It’s important to remember though, that this is an emotion-based move and that means it could carry farther than what may seem probable.  Traders tend to sell first and ask questions later, and that’s what we’re getting right now.  We do have several levels of potential support on the way down (former resistance zones during the recent advance), but they may not be respected at all if the selling continues at this pace.

Eventually, we will see a bounce kick in.  My aim isn’t so much to catch that bounce (since being early would be costly), but rather to see how it gets greeted.  It’ll be particularly important for us to gauge how the next advance is treated.  Does it happen too quickly before fizzling out, in a short-covering kind of way?  Does it happen slowly and find follow through?  Or is it feeble and unable to gather traction?  Those questions will soon have answers, but for now this market is correcting and the sidelines are a great place to be – especially with such sizeable gap potential since all attention is on the Middle East.  Too much can happen right now while we sleep, so I’m a day trader heading into Thursday’s session.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: PXD, OAS, DVN, DLB

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

DVN, XEC, MTW, TSO, NXY, PLD, GSM, PXD, BHI, WTI, OAS, ROSE, PTEN, IO, MAKO, MOBI

Bearish Watch:

DLB, CSCO, CSC

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Stocks gapped sharply lower this morning after the long weekend on concerns tied to the middle east turmoil.  The weakness initially found some buyers, which took the indexes well off their opening lows to fill about half the gap by mid-morning.  The recovery was short-lived, however, and the market slid lower for the remainder of the session.

We’ve been in a buy-all-dips environment for quite some time now, but the pullbacks have been much more shallow.  The only similar slide to what we saw today occurred on January 28th and was essentially erased over the following two sessions.  What makes a sharp selloff like today’s difficult to respond to is the fact that it was so relentless after the initial bounce attempt.  It’s hard to gauge whether the market is just quickly pricing in a poor outcome with Libya, or if we just changed character.

Rather than predict which it will be, it’s best at this point to respect the pullback and the possibility that the long-in-the-tooth rally has run its course for now.  That means greater caution until we see how this pullback is treated.  Fortunately, I had raised stops for my swing trades coming into today, and the damage was minimal.

Going forward, I’ll take good setups as they come along, but there’s no problem with holding cash for a short time here until some of the dust settles.  I don’t want to chase shorts here, nor do I want to catch the proverbial falling knife by attempting to get long on these steep, sudden drops – even in stocks which are still in uptrends.  Once the smoke clears a bit, the added volatility will give us some great opportunities, regardless of which direction this market goes.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: AAPL, NVDA, SNDK, AMZN, AMAT, MTL, RCII, ANN, CSCO, CSC

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

VXX, RCII, SFY, PWE, IO, ANN

Bearish Watch:

CSCO, NSC, APA, MGA, DRIV, BYI, COH, RDY, CNW, KOL, KMT, CSC

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The indexes chalked up more new highs last week, and again it was similar price action to what we’ve seen for some time now.  Recent short-term resistance was cleared, but not in runaway fashion.  Instead, stocks staged another modest rally with multiple days of gains, none of which were of the impressive variety.

Neither the news flow nor the technicals suggest a downside turn at this point, although one could still arrive without warning.  We’re not too extended in the short term, and there’s still a bit of room before the upside projections are reached (NAZ 2856, S&P 1370, RUT 846-856, and DJIA 12700-12800).  So the coast is clear for more upside, but it’s still quite impressive how this rally has persisted.  Every minor dip has been bought – either by bulls needing to chase performance, or by bears desperate to cover shorts on any pullback – and as a result, we’ve seen nearly a constant bid beneath stocks for many weeks now.

And despite the long-in-the-tooth nature of this rally right now, it’s still an uptrend and trends can persist many times for much longer than what may seem reasonable or possible.  In other words, it’s a good time to remind ourselves not to fight the tape, because the bulls have momentum and it will run its course – with or without us.  Fortunately, we’ve caught some nice trades on the long side lately.  There may be many more to come, or we may at some point see reason to become more cautious – the key is to stay attentive and keep an open mind to any development which comes along.

Tonight I’m going with the written format as I’ve been traveling with my family this weekend, but will return to the usual video format on Tuesday.  My notes and trade levels are provided on the charts below.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT.

Day Trading Candidates:

These are the trades I’m eyeing for potential plays tomorrow. I will not be holding these overnight, and will wait for these levels to be crossed before entering trades.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Bullish Watch: PNRA, UA, RL, JNPR, NCT, ROST, BCR, CROX, WWWW, TIF, BWA, BIG, DVN, ARBA, BG, XXIA, PLCM, PTEN, CHKP, CTXS, CLS, NWS, MXIM, RAX

Bearish Watch: FCX, TCK, JDSU, SLAB, TSRA, NAK

The Hit List will not be posted tonight as I am 100% cash overnight and there are no new swing trades for Tuesday. The Hit List typically contains stop and target levels for my swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff