Swing Trading and momentum investing stock pick newsletter and swing trading service.
The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.
No changes
No open positions.
No closed positions.
Good evening StockBandits!
The bears who have been waiting for this market to roll back over are still waiting tonight, as last week we saw another impressive run on the upside. The February lows continue to get farther away, while the January highs have come right back into view. On Friday, the NAZ made a new 52-week high, while the S&P 500 posted its 6th consecutive gain to finish just 12 points from its January high. It has been virtually nonstop green for the past few weeks, which means emotions are running high for both the bulls and the bears.
The biggest thing I’ll be watching in the days and weeks ahead is whether the S&P 500 and DJIA can confirm the highs which the NAZ just made. If not, the NAZ may be subject to a bull trap whereby new highs invite more buyers, only to see the NAZ turn lower to move more in sync with the senior indexes. Right now, the NAZ is leading the way, and we don’t have anything but some light volume to point to in terms of technical flaws. Since the January highs were established, we’ve seen a huge V-shaped move take place, but it may not be done yet.
Heading into a brand new week of trading, it’s important that we prepare for anything, because nothing is out of the question in terms of what might happen next. It’s wise to approach the long side with added caution after such a significant run, but that doesn’t mean we can aggressively short stocks either. The short-term trend is up, and that deserves our respect.
Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!
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NONE TONIGHT
VLTR, VRX, MED, WLP, IT, SMCI, UAUA, MTG, SANM, PL, ACXM, LEA, LIZ, NKE, SQNM, ATLS, HOLX
IOC, BGC, AMAG, CFI, FSLR, RIMM, UNT, HXM, FCN, ANW, CSKI, TS
The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.
The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.
FSLR added
No open positions.
No closed positions.
Good evening StockBandits!
The slow creep higher continued today as the S&P 500 went for its 5th straight gain. Meanwhile, the NAZ and DJIA each made it 4-out-of-5 with modest gains as well. The bulls certainly haven’t yet shifted into profit-taking mode, but the pace of this advance has certainly slowed in the past few sessions. Whether that means we’re in for a sudden shift of momentum or simply a rest phase isn’t clear yet, but there is still plenty of resistance yet to be cleared overhead. We’ve seen impressive gains from the February lows, which weren’t created very long ago. At some point, this market will find it to be tough sledding on the upside, but at the moment the bulls are still in the driver’s seat.
It’s been a tough week for finding high-quality setups thus far, but there were a few tonight I like the looks of as we head into the final session of the week. There is the economic situation in the premarket which could lead to a gap in either direction tomorrow, so we’ll need to keep watch on that. Perhaps we’ll see some better price action and greater momentum to close out the week. I’m eager to see more patterns of good quality, but the one-way nature of the price action of late has prevented those from being constructed on the daily charts. I would suspect next week shows us improvement in that regard. Make the most of your Friday!
Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!
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FSLR has bounced recently from its lows, but the volume has declined throughout the duration of the bounce. Price is now leaning on a rising trend line, which if broken, would indicate another short-term high has been established. I’ll be using a break of the rising trend line at $107.25 as a trigger price for a short entry.
MTG, H, UAUA, APL, DTG, SNDK, NTGR, CSTR, DBRN, PL, IPG
CENX, PKX, FSYS, RL, AMAG, HAR, SNI, CFI, FSLR, HXM, FCN, ANW, JOE, CSKI
The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.
Lately we’ve had more day trades highlighted here than anything else, so I wanted to take an opportunity to share some thoughts on that.
The recent market conditions simply haven’t allowed for doing much swing trading. We’ve seen limited follow through, and with the exception of 2 downward moves, the action has resembled what we saw late last year with slow grinds higher and low volatility. That’s not ideal for swing trading, although we have still had some listed here lately. As a result, I’ve frequently been focused on the shorter timeframes (day trading) by using setups which look good for a quick pop but not much else.
Those day trades are what I’m eyeing for my own trading, and therefore what I’ve been highlighting in the nightly Bandit Broadcast for all of you. Many days I can grab a few nice trades and make a day’s pay while waiting for opportunities to put capital to work for slightly longer timeframes with the swing trades. Other days I may take a few small hits, but overall it has proven to be a good income strategy for me.
While the market conditions will change (hopefully soon), the way I personally manage my day trades will generally not change. That isn’t to say that I won’t adapt, but rather my day trades will still fall under the umbrella of some broad guidelines that I want to share with you here.
I’ve been clear that TheStockBandit.com isn’t intended to be purely a ‘day trading’ site, so the purpose of the site is not to exclusively discuss or highlight day trading opportunities. Additionally, the format of the site has intentionally not been structured for the focus of day trading or day trading education (no chat room for example). However, day trades are still provided here when that’s the best thing available, and entries are offered with them so that you can at least see what I’m looking to trade and where I’m looking to enter. They are intended to be for traders who have some experience day trading, and do not need assistance in getting out. That’s for time efficiency on my end, honestly because I want my focus on the market during the day and not on a chat room (just to give you some background).
But with all that said, I am happy to shed some additional light on my day trading so that you can benefit from it. I don’t see a daily ‘day trade review’ feature being added here, but I can address trades when asked and I’m glad to do that. I have a number of people who email me intraday asking these exact kinds of questions, so you can also feel free to do that.
When it comes to general trading guidelines for day trades, here are a few links you’ll find useful. There are some articles and some videos, but they offer insights into how I go about managing my day trades and the rationale behind some of them.
https://www.thestockbandit.tv/2009/05/tsbtv70-day-trade-management/
https://www.thestockbandit.tv/2009/01/tsbtv7-gauging-intraday-momentum/
https://www.thestockbandit.net/2009/09/03/stack-the-odds-for-daytrading-success/
https://www.thestockbandit.net/2009/11/09/managing-day-trades-effectively/
* I enter at the prices specified in the video from the night before. I’m going off the daily charts for entries, and going off the intraday charts for exits. Is the stock trending? Is it creating higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows? Is key resistance or support being established, or is the stock approaching those kinds of levels? If it is, I’ll need to take that into account for the sake of risk management and look to ring the register. I’m watching for intraday patterns to emerge as well (exhaustion, rounded tops/lows, support/resistance, continuation setups where I might even add if I feel aggressive, etc.).
* I don’t want to chase a stock beyond that level, so if it gaps through my intended trigger, I’ll avoid the trade entirely since my risk/reward profile for the trade will have changed. There simply are too many stocks on the move to get married to one and chase it beyond a prudent entry.
* My stop loss from entry is most of the time going to be 1% (as outlined on the day trading strategy page). That limits my losses significantly, and allows for a risk/reward in most cases of about 3:1. Most stocks will make a good move intraday (when they run) of about 3-5%, so a 1% stop offsets that nicely and gives me ample reward for minimal risk. A more lively stock that might move 5-10% on a given day will get a wider stop (like 2%), but often those are either highly volatile stocks or the single-digit stocks, both of which are listed here rarely. So in most cases 1% is enough for me.
* I’ll aim to book profits based on both the intraday price action and the profits I’m looking at. If the stock is clearly losing momentum, I’ll take at least 1/2 my shares off. If the stock has approached a key level, I’ll exit. If it’s climbing at a sustainable rate with plenty of blue sky above, I’ll look to sit tight and just adjust my stop to an appropriate level.
* My stop does get adjusted during the trade. If I’m up 1% in the trade, I’ll usually tighten my stop to breakeven. And as the trade climbs more, I’ll make incremental exits (for example, often when I’m up 2% I’ll take off 1/2). Essentially I want to keep a tight initial stop, monitor the intraday chart (anything like a 2-minute, 3-minute, or 5-minute chart will suffice), and see how long I think I can ride the trade. I’ll use excessive strength to my advantage and offer out some shares, and I’ll tighten my stop with the arrival of consolidation phases.
So while I might not be able to post every entry/exit each day, or review the day’s trades since the Bandit Broadcast is a forward-looking newsletter geared toward tomorrow’s price action, I still am willing to discuss day trades and hope you’ll feel free to ask for help anytime you have questions.
I will not always be right. I will have losing trades and losing days, but I’m always happy to help out. And feel free to share your comments with me here on this, I’d love to hear it!
Good evening StockBandits!
Another attempt at a rally today fell shy of success as the indexes gave back their early gains to finish right near Tuesday’s closing levels. The NAZ and S&P 500 each finished less than 1 point away from last night’s levels, while the DJIA gave up a measly 9 points. It’s sure looking like the run off last week’s lows is getting tired with the weak finishes yesterday and today, but we still have yet to see any real profit-taking kick in.
The lack of back and forth action leaves us with what has been a one-way move lately, which also makes it difficult to locate new setups for anything but the shortest of timeframes. Bullish stocks are for the most part looking stretched to the upside, making them higher-risk buys at this point. At the same time, bearish stocks have also participated to a degree in this bounce, leaving very few clear laggards to select from. So heading into tomorrow, I’m going to keep my trading timeframe brief, and I’m doing my best to be patient with new swing trades. At some point we’ll have some better risk/reward candidates to select from (as well as cleaner patterns), but right now the overall price action is offering very little to work with.
Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!
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NONE TONIGHT
UAUA, APL, WLP, LCAPA, H
PKX, FSLR, CNQ, HXM, ANW, JOE, CRK
The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.
Good evening StockBandits!
Following a pretty nice lift from the lows of last Thursday, another positive start this morning offered a tempting opportunity for some quick profit-taking. The NAZ had run nearly 100 points from the lows just 3 sessions ago, and the list of buyable stocks had become greatly reduced. As a result, we saw an afternoon rollover today right after new highs were reached for the session, setting off a steady downtrend for the final 2 hours of the day. In the end, the indexes finished well off their highs of the day, but little-changed on a net basis.
This kind of action does point to some short-term fatigue, and that’s not surprising to see. The biggest question though is whether this area on the daily charts will lead to a lower high (as compared to the January peak), or simply another spot to pause before another climb.
The rebound from the February low has been a persistent one, with very little give-and-take along the way. It’s been characterized by rallies and consolidation, but no pullbacks yet. I suspect once we do get a pullback, it’s going to lead to quite a battle as the bears reassert themselves while the bulls do their best to defend their recent progress.
Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!
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NONE TONIGHT
MTG, CSIQ, AIV, ODSY, FOSL, CAKE, NIHD, PSUN, LLL, AMED
HXM, PKX, FSYS, RL, CAT, AMT, FSLR, APOL, NBL
The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.
Good evening StockBandits!
Monday morning optimism set the early tone today with a slight upside gap, opening the door for a continued push higher from the February lows. The market held onto it for the remainder of the session, posting a solid advance by the closing bell with the NAZ and S&P 500 each reaching their best levels since January 21st.
Some key levels were reclaimed with today’s action, leaving only the January highs remaining overhead as resistance. Volume sent some mixed signals, however, as it was light once again for the S&P 500 but heavy for the NAZ. The DJIA stayed within the short-term trading range though, with volume apparently too light there to inspire the senior index to rally more on the session. Nonetheless, the short-term consolidation phase has now been cleared for the NAZ and S&P 500, which each moved back into positive ground for 2010.
If the bulls want to build on it, it’ll primarily be up to them to produce the necessary follow through in the days ahead, although they could get a little help from the bears. There are likely quite a few shorts on the wrong side of this move, as there were only a pair of downside moves from the January highs. Since then, no follow through has been seen, which could keep the bears on the defensive. Either way, it’s shaping up to be a more eventful week, so let’s get to the video.
Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!
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NONE TONIGHT
FOSL, CAKE, RAX, MED, JDAS, AEZ, TXRH, PSUN, LLL
AU, WCG, NTRI, APOL, AMT, FSLR, ARO, MLM, ACI
The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.
The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.
TIF closed
No open positions – 100% cash.
TIF bounced in a hurried fashion from the February low, but volume failed to support the move, creating a bearish divergence in the process. The recent hesitation to move higher offered a risk/reward scenario I liked, along with a well-defined entry and stop for initiating a swing trade on the setup. After an initial trigger though, the stock hesitated to continue lower, and ultimately moved up to stop me out on Friday for a 2.5% loss. I’m out of the stock and this move negates the pattern, so I’ll leave it alone until another tradeable pattern emerges.
Good evening StockBandits!
Heading into last week, the bounce from the February low was starting to get somewhat stretched. A streak of gains left stocks short-term overbought, and the door was open for another round of selling to kick in. However, both the NAZ and S&P 500 gave up only 5 points on the week, while the DJIA shed only 77. That’s sure not much of a pullback, and essentially we saw last week prove to be a consolidation phase with a lot of churning action and very little progress in either direction.
Whether that implies the bulls are eager to build on the bounce from the lows, or simply short-term indecision in the market remains to be seen. The lack of a significant pullback does afford the bulls another opportunity to assert themselves in the week ahead, so the biggest question will be if they are up to the challenge. Volume has been light for the most part, and at this point, it’s anybody’s ball game. A rollover from here would likely gather some speed as it progresses, implying that a lower high has been put in. On the flip side, a turn higher could also find renewed enthusiasm as more traders would wonder if that was the extent of the correction. Either way, it’s going to be an interesting week ahead of us.
Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!
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NONE TONIGHT
FOSL, MED, JDAS, IT, SMCI, APH, APC, GD, AEZ, LFL, SY, NIHD, PLL, RIMM, JOYG, AMR, ALK, CREE
NTRI, MLM, BBBB, WCG, FE
The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.
