TheStockBandit.com

Good evening StockBandits!

Monday morning optimism was short-lived today as a sizeable gap was completely filled in just over two hours.  That took the indexes negative, but not by much, as Friday’s lows were respected.  From there, we saw range-bound price action with a lack of momentum to go along with diminished volume.

The market’s fumbling around here for support, and while it’s respecting it for now, it wouldn’t take much for another breakdown to occur.  Leadership is lacking, aside from precious metals, while many other groups and individual stocks are reflecting the current downtrends found in the charts of the major indexes.  So needless to say, all eyes are on the lows at this point, at least until we either crack them or rally away from them.

It’s still the case that this week is going to prove important – particularly for the bulls if they’re going to defend this area of support.  Following a major correction and a failed bounce, expectations are low, but the jury’s still out and anything is possible.  Stay on your toes out there!

I remain in 100% cash tonight, as I have been since July 25th.  More setups are beginning to emerge, which I’m encouraged by, but at this point it’s still a market struggling to find its footing and volatility remains elevated.  That’s making it tough on stocks to base out properly and develop some foundations, but I will continue to work the charts and simply take what the market has to offer.  For now, that’s day trades.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

Video Stocks Discussed: HANS, RVBD, NUE, MCP, RGLD, SCCO, SMG, RS

 

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT – 100% cash.

[table “105” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The August lows moved quickly into view last week with a hard decline Thursday and another selloff on Friday.  That brought new closing lows for the NAZ, while the other indexes were able to hold narrowly above their lowest closes from two weeks ago.

That not only places great importance on the week ahead of us with the all-important test now upon us, but it also reminds us of the weakness of this market.  The relief rally was quick and brief, pointing to the continued presence of sellers dominating this tape.  The relentless decline which preceded it offered no opportunity for those hoping to sell on strength, so their chance arrived on the initial rebound which has now failed.  Anyone stuck in this market on the wrong side now faces a big dilemma: hope the lows hold, stay long and wrong, or bail out at lower prices.

Given the velocity of the selloff we saw coming off the late-July bounce highs, there’s clearly some urgency on the part of sellers to raise cash right now.  We also saw volume expand considerably on Thursday and Friday, again showing more participation on the side of sellers than we had seen in the final 3 advancing bars of the S&P 500.  In addition to the failed bounce and current downtrend, that also paints a gloomy picture for those hoping for stabilization.

As usual, anything is possible in the market, but this week is going to prove important – particularly for the bulls if they’re going to defend this area.  It’ll be interesting to see and a learning opportunity as we see the VIX approaching 48 once again with fear on the rise.

Once again, in terms of other charts worth noting tonight, there are only a few. Patience remains highly critical right now, so if you’re not seeing what you like out there, preserve capital and stay in cash – clearly there are many who wish they were right now!  That’s been a very favorable position for us since closing out the last overnight positions on July 25th.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

Video Stocks Discussed: RGLD, CNX, MHK

 

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT – 100% cash.

[table “104” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Last night I mentioned that the initial bounce had yet to fail, and as of tonight’s close that’s still the case – although not by much.  Today’s steep decline handed the indexes another nasty blow, not only with the point decline but in how the day unfolded.  The morning gap never attempted to fill, and instead stocks slid steadily lower as volume once again spiked compared to the previous couple of sessions.  That points to an urgency by those who are doing the selling, and widespread participation in light of the heavy volume.  Anything’s possible, but days of distribution which dwarf recent advances don’t paint much of a bright picture for the bulls right now.

It’s not my call to make as to whether the August lows are going to hold, but at this rate, it wouldn’t take long to break them.  On top of that, I have a renewed lack of interest in the long side, not only due to the badly broken charts but also the fact that the buyers seem to have no resolve here.  Yesterday’s minor rebound from the lows quickly became history and completely forgotten today as the market took another drumming and the bulls headed for the hills.

Last night’s trade setups offered a good couple of lessons today, so I’d like to briefly cover them.  HANS held up rather well in the face of today’s decline, but I’ve removed it from the Hit List as it did not trigger today and the overall market is turning ugly again.  I’ll revisit it again most likely if/when this market is able to stabilize a bit.  APA gapped through my intended trigger, but stayed within my gap rules to justify a smaller position.  It made a nice move which was worth catching, particularly with an aggressively-tightened stop this morning (as per the email alert).  I’m out with a small gain and back to cash tonight.  However, it was a good example of how hard it is to formulate a trade plan in such a slippery market since a gap can change the landscape instantly and require immediate adjustments in order to keep the risk/reward profile in check.

In terms of other charts worth noting tonight, there are only a few.  Patience is critical right now, as participation on either side (long or short) is much more difficult when fear spikes and we see 4-6% index moves.  If you don’t see what you like out there, preserve capital and stay in cash – clearly there are many who wish they were right now!

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

Video Stocks Discussed: HANS, SCCO, MHK

 

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT – 100% cash.

[table “103” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Following Tuesday’s pullback, stocks had a chance to accelerate lower today – and didn’t.  Even considering the intraday downtrend which formed from the morning highs, a late-day bounce provided enough lift to put the senior indexes slightly positive while the NAZ & RUT each posted only minor declines.

The rebound did more than erase losses, as it also demonstrated the presence of some dip-buyers.  While this market still isn’t out of the woods, the fact remains that the initial bounce has not yet failed.  The longer the market is able to avoid a rapid descent back toward last week’s lows, the longer a low-level trading range may persist.

This digestion phase has been expected after such a swift move lower, and it’s healthy price action even if the ranges have narrowed in recent days and volume has tapered off.  We’re still in the late summer, so trading volume could remain quiet until after Labor Day, but only if the news flow allows for this rest phase to continue.

The quieter price action of the past couple of days has also helped to a great extent the number of charts setting up with patterns.  Volatility has contracted and that’s helping as well, so I’m expecting to see more bases to trade from going forward.  Tonight I’ve got a few day trade candidates I like for Thursday’s session, along with a couple of swing candidates which have well-defined risk due to their chart patterns.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

Video Stocks Discussed: MPEL, SU, NAV, MS, HANS, APA

 

Swing Trading Candidates:

HANS is acting well with a recent rally and a few days of rest.  This has created a tight bullish consolidation, and the stock may soon get back on the move.  Although some resistance isn’t far overhead, the buyers remain in control of this one (note all the biggest spikes in volume have come on advances in recent months).  I’ll get long if this one clears $81.25 with a stop just beneath short-term support. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

APA rolled over hard a few weeks ago and has since bounced only partially.  During the bounce, volume has diminished, so it has failed to confirm the rebound in price.  I’m now watching this bearish rising wedge for a breakdown to initiate a short sale.  I’ll get short if the lower trend line gets broken at $104.20, and will place an initial stop above the wedge just in case. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

[table “102” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Today we saw stocks gap lower after a very strong finish yesterday as profit-taking kicked in.  I mentioned here last night how historically we’ve seen closes at extremes indicate continuation moves for the following day, but that quite often of late it’s been followed by a reversal.  Today fit the recent mold, and it’s yet another example of how paying close attention to recent price action can benefit us as traders.

While today’s pullback suggests that perhaps the initial bounce is done for the moment, it was not an exceptionally weak day.  We saw the net changes somewhat mild compared to recent declines, as well as a finish well off the low of the day.  Stated otherwise, it was just the kind of pullback the bulls would prefer to see – particularly after getting drummed since late-July.

The big question tonight is whether today’s dip will bring a return to the recent lows for a test.  While that remains to be seen, the fact is that the magnitude of the initial bounce does afford this market some breathing room should we happen to see this pullback continue.  Tomorrow could of course see intensified selling, but if I had to make a comment on today’s dip, I’d say it was rather mild.  If the market pulls back quietly and in a relatively shallow fashion, the large V-shaped move may have established a low which can stick for at least a little while.

It’s still quite a minefield out there with a ton of charts looking sloppy and broken, and it’s possible we’re in the midst of carving out a low-level (but wide) trading range here.  Nonetheless, some range-bound price action would go a long way towards helping the charts of individual stocks set up for cleaner plays.  Additionally, should volatility contract we’ll see some much better conditions emerge for swing trading in addition to the day trading ideas which are so predominant at the moment with these frequent overnight gaps.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: FCX, BG, RKT, APA

 

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT – 100% Cash

[table “101” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The relief rally which started from last week’s lows gave the bulls something to consider over the weekend.  With prices rising from their recent depths while volume diminished, there was certainly cause for concern from a technical standpoint (still is).  However, traders returned to upbeat M&A news in the tech space and it provided reason for a continued lift to kick off the new week.

An upside gap was never filled, and a steady rally in the final few hours of the day left each of the indexes with solid gains of nearly 2%.  The market finished at its highs of the session, indicating the buyers ran out of time before they ran out of cash to put to work.

A close at an extreme (in today’s case, a close at the high) often signals follow through for the next day, although we’ve seen multiple occasions lately where that failed to prove true.  With that said, anything is still possible going forward, particularly after massive initial moves off the lows of last week.

In addition to the obvious high-volume breakdowns and major declines we’re seeing this market attempt to rebound from, we’re seeing a relief rally come on considerably lighter volume.  These moves are relatively steep and therefore not at a sustainable pace for more than a short period of time, which means when the music stops we could see another quick wave of selling kick in.  That’s the point at which we’re likely to gain a better feel for the health of this market.  For now, it’s still quite difficult to trust, not only in terms of chasing this initial bounce but also in the sheer lack of well-defined setups in the charts of individual stocks.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: RGLD, VECO, MGA, TCK

 

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT – 100% Cash

[table “100” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff