TheStockBandit.com

Swing Trading and momentum investing stock pick newsletter and swing trading service.

Not Out of the Woods – Blueprint 4-9-2014

By Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

The bulls produced follow through on the heels of Tuesday’s relief rally, which was exactly what they needed to do.  Not only did we see follow through, but we saw greater strength today than in yesterday’s session in terms of net gains.  The wider participation of today’s lift puts added distance between prices and the lows from Monday, which could help on the next dip when those same bulls are hoping for a higher low.

What’s potentially problematic though, is [Read more…]

How to Turn a Profit at 50-50

By Filed Under: Trader Improvement

I’m asked often about my win rate, to which I always respond the same way.  I’m proud to say that it usually hovers around 50/50, which I realize won’t impress anyone who only cares about a high win rate.

But to those who care about making money and being profitable in their trading, they know the importance behind the 50/50:  the size of wins vs. the size of losses.

makemoney502014 has so far been an excercise in risk management for me in that I only took a dozen swing trades in the first quarter.  That’s light, yes, but with a fickle, stagnating market, selectivity has been critical.  Many have been spinning their wheels in 2014, getting whipsawed with the moves we’ve seen so far.

Back to that dozen trades, here’s the breakdown of how they’ve worked:
6 Wins
6 Losses

Exciting, huh?  But let’s get to what matters:  the size of the wins vs. the size of the losses.

Of the 6 losses I took, 4 of them were less than 3% each.  Small losses are easy to recover from.

Of the 6 winners I booked, 4 of them were greater than 6% each.  Big wins easily cover multiple small losses.

Here’s the breakdown by trade as found on the Recent Picks page:

q1trades2014

Aside from the takeaway that you don’t have to be hyper-active to trade well, there’s a major point you don’t want to miss…

Aim for tiny drawdowns, and shoot to make more in your typical winning trade than you give back in your typical losing trade.

High accuracy rates aren’t inherently better, as by their definition they usually entail some catastrophic losses when they happen.  No thanks!  As for me, I prefer the smaller hits even if a little more frequent.  After all, the whole point is to be net profitable, isn’t it?

If you need some help, I’d love to show you what I’m doing.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to the Stock Pick Service to get my trades.
Follow @TheStockBandit on Twitter

Temporary Turnaround – Blueprint 4-8-2014

By Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

Turnaround Tuesday arrived today with some upside for the market on the heels of the quick selloff from last week’s highs.  The bulls were happy to stop the bleeding, although the strength was relatively modest as only a small fraction of Monday’s decline was recovered [Read more…]

Backing and Filling – Blueprint 4-7-2014

By Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

The runup from the February low was downright impressive.  The market ramped quickly with persistent strength and several gaps were formed along the way.  But anytime price goes too far, too fast, backing and filling becomes necessary.  That seems to be exactly what we’re seeing here.  Some may blame it on the Fed or the economy or earnings expectations, but from the technical side when price retraces a move it’s called backing and filling.  Prices are doing just that right now – backing up and filling in some of those old voids [Read more…]

5 Setups to Watch This Week

By Filed Under: Stock Charts

The correction continued last week for the NAZ as it made a new 8-week low.  Meanwhile, the S&P failed its breakout in a big way, and former market leaders simply can’t catch a bid.  It’s a great time for caution, which has been the message of late with the mixed market signals we’ve seen.

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

BBY has a big unfilled gap from January which it may attempt to partially fill if it can clear $28.30 to make a new recovery high.

BBY-4-6-2014

Why I Use TC2000

WAG has created some short-term lower highs and the current bounce may have run its course. A break below the trend line at $65.60 opens the door for selling.

WAG-4-6-2014

Why I Use TC2000

NEM has lifted from the March low but it has only seen a partial recovery. A break of rising support at $23.90 sets the stage for more downside.

NEM-4-6-2014

Why I Use TC2000

DDD is still acting heavy and now faces key multi-month support. A new low at $54.50 would begin another leg to the downside.

DDD-4-6-2014

Why I Use TC2000

FDO is trying to bounce here but just hasn’t found traction. The trend is down and a new low at $57.20 is likely to trigger more stops as price heads south.

FDO-4-6-2014

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

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