While the People of Wal-Mart website is always an entertaining bookmark, the stock itself is no joke. Sporting nearly a 20% return since its August low, this slow mover has outpaced the S&P’s return by about 2 1/2 times.
Checking out the recent price action, the stock is a bit range-bound, but a closer examination reveals an often misunderstood pattern: the cup & handle pattern. The look of the pattern is easily identifiable to even novice chart readers, but they usually fail to take it in context. Here, it’s right where it should be found – within an uptrend.
Here’s a closer look at the chart:
A confirmation of this pattern with an upside exit would put this one in the mid-60’s in short order, so it’s worth keeping on the radar even though it’s far from a momentum name. If anything, this is simply an example worth pointing out. The handle may need a bit more work and it needs to threaten the upper trend line to indicate a move is imminent, but it belongs on the radar no less.
Jeff,
At what point would you consider the pattern broken? I can see where it might just be rolling over with the most current being a new lower low in a series, or just continued to chop up and down for quite awhile with bow shaped patterns.
Thanks much.
Best regards,
John
Hey John!
If WMT starts to weaken and roll over a bit (ala DLTR early Nov), then yes this pattern would be negated. Currently I’d view that to be about the $57 area, which would be a new low for the handle portion of this pattern. It needs to hold up here and get going soon if this cup & handle is to play out, in my opinion. For this reason, an anticipatory entry wouldn’t be worth it, so I’d only consider it upon an upside break from the handle, $58.50 or higher.
Hope this helps!