Good evening StockBandits!

The market spent the day in a narrow range today as it respected yesterday’s high and low, posting its second consecutive inside bar on the daily charts of the indexes.  Momentum was lacking all day, making for an easy session in which to churn your account while waiting for follow through which never arrived.

There are opinions on every corner about which way this market is going to break from this narrowing consolidation (wedge), but it’s a 50-50 guess and a prediction isn’t necessary.  What’s important to actually profit from the next move will be to set up some if-then scenarios for trades on both the long and short sides, and then act according to whatever happens.  Stated otherwise, let me remind you not to get positioned for a move and then hope the market accommodates you…that isn’t trading.  The idea at this point is to let price make up its mind, and then go with it.  Trend lines are converging daily on the index charts, and after two straight inside sessions, we could see a move out of this area before the week is done.

As of yet, we’re still waiting for the break(out/down), so I’m still in cash on an overnight basis.  There are some good setups emerging nightly for trades, but I’m only looking to take day trades as long as this market continues to show short-term indecision.  I’m eager to have some swing trades going – and soon I will – but these past couple of weeks have given us zero follow through and that’s a recipe for frustration unless your timeframe is very brief for trades.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: BIIB, CHK, CVLT, KMX, MGM, MON

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

MTW, UHS, ACTG, CHK, HLS, IT, FO, RPRX, HS, AN, SBGI, CVLT, KRA, LCAPA, TDC, TUP, HSIC, FCEA, BIIB, WAT, RAX, KMX, ALXN, BKD, OKE

Bearish Watch:

MGM, MON, MMI, WTI, CF, APA, IDCC, CY, FFIV, CMI, SFY

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A quick selloff from the open today failed to threaten yesterday’s lows, so in keeping with the current trading range, stocks bounced considerably.  The lack of follow through I’ve noted day after day here was again exemplified in today’s action, as Monday’s decline was perfectly erased in the S&P 500.  Such is the nature of trading ranges, as support gets bought and resistance gets sold.

That’s not to say we’ll stay here forever, because we won’t.  The moves within the range have become pretty emotional, so once we do see a break, it’s likely to catch some off guard and produce a meaningful move.  At the moment though, we’re still waiting for that break.

Tonight on the daily charts of the indexes, some wedges have become more pronounced.  That gives us well-defined trend lines to watch for both resistance and support, giving the aggressive trader some closer levels to keep an eye on for a possible exit from this range.  Conservative traders can continue to monitor the highs and lows of the past 2 weeks, which aren’t far outside the wedge trend lines.

My trading focus right now continues to have a short-term timeframe, as this reversal-prone market simply doesn’t aid multi-day moves.  Swing trading is best done with the proverbial “wind at your back,” which is to say long-sided swing trades work best in a climbing market, and short-sided swing trades work best in a declining market.  In the short-term, a trending market is absent (since we’re range-bound), and therefore one less favorable element is present for swing trading.  Once we leave the range, some good opportunities should surface, but this market just isn’t trustworthy yet for multi-day follow through in either direction.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: OKE, HSIC, SRZ, TDC, MGM

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

OKE, BKD, ALXN, KMX, JNPR, SM, MCO, RAX, RCII, ROK, KSU, SWK, CSX, EMN, WAT, MERC, SKH, BIIB, CVX, FCEA, HSIC, SRZ, TTI, CTSH, TUP, TDC

Bearish Watch:

MGM, AKAM, SCCO, SFY, NVDA, CMI, TRW

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A gap up this morning was quickly sold, as the indexes surrendered their early gains to go red.  The selling intensified throughout the morning, with no buyers in sight.  The indexes undercut their intraday lows numerous times, stabilizing only briefly before doing it again.  By early afternoon, the market had moved back down toward last week’s lows, and the pace of the slide slowed considerably.  After some stabilization, an afternoon bounce lifted stocks from their lows, but only partially.

I’ve mentioned in the past few videos how when we’re caught in a trading range like this, anything is possible and frequent changes of direction are likely.  We saw that take place on Friday with a hard selloff and a late-day spike back up, and today’s downside reversal was simply another example of this market respecting the boundaries of this range.  So tonight, we’ve moved down toward the lower end of the range, but as of yet we’re still waiting for an exit from this area of indecision.

I’m looking to keep new trades short-term heading into tomorrow’s session, at least until we see a push outside the trading range.  There are some nice day trading opportunities with this recent volatility, but they are ideal for those who have some experience managing trades intraday.  If that’s not your style, then the sidelines remain a good place until we see this market make up its mind.  With the growing emotion we’re seeing, I suspect once we leave this trading range it could lead to a meaningful move.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: TTWO, CRZO, IDCC, IVN, POT, PLCM, JNPR, MGA, CSC, CAB

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

MCO, JAZZ, SD, FDO, CLR, PXD, SLB, SGY, PLCM, AVL, JNPR, ALXN, ICE, MAKO, HS, BIIB, SGI, NDAQ, KV-A, EXR, TMX, RPRX, GLBL, PDS, EGY

Bearish Watch:

NTAP, APA, MGA, MGM, TCK, MOS, CMI, BWA, ARW, DLB, AIG, FCX, RYN, SOHU, CSC, GM, DE, LVS, COF, CAB, CF, MOO, COST, MAR, STT, HTZ

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Last week felt like a down week for the market, but believe it or not, each of the indexes posted minor gains for the week.  There was quite a bit of up-and-down though, as rallies were almost completely offset by declines on Tuesday and Friday.  In the end though, a final-hour bounce Friday afternoon brought the market positive on the week.

That bounce was not unlike the sharp rally we saw Thursday, as each of them were characterized by steep, nearly nonstop advances.  With the market sitting off its recent highs, bears are getting more active on the short side, and those rallies both felt very “squeezy” with the sudden and relentless ramps.

Whether it’s bulls defending their territory (again) or bears becoming anxious to have a run of their own, it’s becoming clear that emotions are running higher for this market for the first time in a while.  I’m highly encouraged by that.  Even though in the short-term we’re seeing indecision with this battle playing out within the current trading range, at some point we’ll see some excellent follow through as one side surrenders reluctantly to the other.

For now, we’re still seeing prices in the indexes defined by clear boundaries of support and resistance, so until we push beyond those levels – and especially on a closing basis – anything’s possible and more noise could come our way.  My plan is to keep it short-term for the most part until we see this range get broken, then become more aggressive by getting positioned for the next move once the technical break I’m waiting for finally arrives.  Quite a few stocks are working on bases which may only need another bar or two before they’re ready for listing as swing trades.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: SOHU, CRZO, PPO, IDCC, IVN, POT

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

SRZ, KSU, SD, KEG, SGY, VSEA, SM, SOHU, SU, SBGI, SNCR, ICE, HS, BP, COP, COG, TTWO, CRZO, PPO, FCEA, EXR, HSIC

Bearish Watch:

IDCC, IVN, ARW, CREE, FCX, F, PCAR, ALV, LVS, POT, RGA, CAB, AKAM, INFA

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A gap-up-go-up day caught shorts by surprise today as stocks bounced big.  Pre-market strength was buoyed by encouraging economic data, and with stocks having held above the lower end of the short-term trading range, the stage was set for a lift.  That’s exactly what we got, with the indexes flying back to the upper end of the range in today’s action.

Both bulls and bears alike have been conditioned in recent months to buy dips, as we simply haven’t seen any downside gain traction.  The pullbacks have nearly all lasted just a day or two, and have quickly been followed by more strength.  Bulls are stepping in to accumulate on weakness and put cash to work in order to avoid feeling left behind.  Bears have been torn to bits and are on shaky confidence, leaving them prone to covering shorts quickly after catching even a small decline.  That combination of both sides being buyers on weakness has maintained a persistent bid beneath this market, and today that certainly played a role.

What’s still unclear at this point is whether this market has made its highs for now, or if we’ll soon set more new 52-week highs.  The pullback last week saw a failed bounce and a quick turn lower this week, which made for the first attempt at downside follow through we’ve seen in quite a while.  We’re still dealing with the short-term trading range I’ve highlighted here the past couple of nights, so the jury’s still out for now.  Tonight we’re back at the upper end of the range, so tomorrow could prove to be a pivotal day.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: KSU, SBGI, HS, POT, TTWO

Swing Trading Candidates:

TTWO has pulled back only slightly from its recent high, and put in some needed rest to digest the February run.  This stock is now challenging the upper trend line of this consolidation, and may be ready to go soon.  I’ll be going long if this one clears the trend line at $16.30. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Bullish Watch:

SRZ, MCO, KSU, CLR, KEG, TXN, SGY, PLCM, RDC, SBGI, IO, SKH, HS, CVX, XOM, COP, COG, NDAQ, CHS, NOG, OII, RRR, MFC, TTWO, IT, ICO

Bearish Watch:

AA, IVN, F, LVS, POT, HPQ

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The major averages each posted gains today on the heels of Tuesday’s selloff, but it wasn’t an impressive rebound.  Not only did the market finish well off its session high, but the net changes gave the impression today’s bounce was more of a formality than anything.

Last night I mentioned here that we could see a day of digestion after yesterday’s big move, and essentially that’s what we got.  The intraday ranges were a bit wider than I would have expected, but on a net basis we pretty much just saw the market take a rest.

In the short term, we still have the same couple of levels to keep a close eye on, which are last week’s lows and this week’s highs.  Until we see a push beyond one of those boundaries, and particularly on a closing basis, there isn’t much to get excited about.  So for now, the market is off it’s recent high and consolidating after a pullback.  For me, that’s reason for caution until strength returns to warrant more buying.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: ICO, RDC, MGA, IDCC

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

PBR, PDC, CHS, NOG, BDCO, GGC, ICO, KKR, CNQ, KLAC, KEG, PLCM, RDC, VSEA, CXO, WLL, TLM, SKH, CVX, IMO, COP

Bearish Watch:

MGA, TGT, JRCC, MOS, IDCC, CMI, AA, IPI, F, DE, SPW, FLR, POT, FWLT

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Pre-market strength led to a minor gap higher this morning, but the strength was quickly sold.  The opening bars marked the highs of the session for the indexes, and once they went negative, they never looked back.  A mid-morning bounce failed to return the market to the flat line, and from there we saw steady selling into the afternoon as the indexes posted 1-2% declines across the board.

As is so often the case in trading, the obvious play rarely tends to work out.  That was the concern I expressed here last night with a growing bearish watch list and many stocks looking like their bounces were fizzling out, combined with the expectation of another first-of-the-month advance by so many market participants.  Once we saw a little weakness set in this morning, the crowd recognized this day may play out differently than just another rally to kick off the month of March, and by the end of the day we got a significant bearish reversal bar on the daily chart of the S&P.

At this point, things could still remain tricky.  The bears still risk a potential trap if new pullback lows aren’t set soon, so all eyes are now on the lows of last week.  It’s been quite some time since we saw a bounce which failed, but at the moment, that looks to be the case as we see the first downside follow through in quite a while.  If we do see last week’s lows get breached on a closing basis, it would indicate that this market may finally be ready to correct.  Either way, cash or short is a good place to be tonight, so it’s important to respect the possibility of some additional profit-taking.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: TGT, TEX, BGC, POT, ANR

Swing Trading Candidates:

ANR broke down sharply from its January high and has been range-bound since then.  Here it’s resting just above support, which if broken, would confirm this post-decline rest phase as a bearish pattern.  I’ll be going short if this one breaks $52.10.  I’ll have a tight initial stop, as support was briefly broken last week before a bounce, and I’d expect the next break to stick if this pattern is to play out into another leg lower. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Bullish Watch:

OAS, CVE, SKH, COP

Bearish Watch:

ANR, SINA, TGT, AGU, JRCC, IDCC, PAY, RVBD, RAX, CAT, TCK, TIF, MOS, CMI, BWA, DLB, NVDA, ROVI, TXN, MON, FCX, AA, TEX, LULU, F, DOV, JEC, WLT, COH, BGC, POT, FOSL, TRW

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Stocks headed higher right out of the gate this morning, but for 3 out of 4 indexes, the best levels of the day were seen early in the session.  Despite late-day bounces, only the DJIA was able to eclipse its morning high.  We saw a discrepancy between the blue chips and the small caps, as the DJIA and S&P both held their gains quite well, while the NAZ and RUT each barely finished in the green.

In looking through many charts tonight, I saw quite a few stocks which appear to be in danger of creating short-term lower highs if these bounces fizzle out.  That’s a result of the sharp pullback we saw last week, but also due to the pace of this bounce losing steam rapidly in many stocks.  If we should happen to see a little selling in the next day or two, it could quite easily lead to another slide.  And at the risk of stacking up “ifs,” should we see a turn lower from here, it could bring about a bigger shift in the prevailing mood of this market as we’d have a bounce getting sold for the first time in a while rather than simply another dip getting bought.

Another bar or two will do wonders for many stocks which are attempting to create new patterns, but as of tonight there simply aren’t a lot of mature setups yet.  The swift move lower early last week and then a few days of strength has left quite a few stocks with V-shaped rebounds, so a bit of basing would be ideal.  Regardless of which way we go, the market is acting more lively at this point, and that’s very good for us as traders.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: CVX, IO, FDX, JNPR, TIF, AA

Swing Trading Candidates:

AA recently failed its breakout after making new highs, and rolled over sharply.  Over the past few sessions, it has bounced back slightly, but volume has diminished and this chart may soon have a lower high.  I’m watching the rising wedge pattern for a possible confirmation, which would take place with a break of the lower rising trend line at $16.60.  I’ll go short if that break occurs, and will be looking for a second leg lower to begin. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Bullish Watch:

CVX, XOM, IMO, CNQ, RES, IO, DVN, MOBI, TLM, COP, SGI

Bearish Watch:

X, MAN, DE, EXPD, SVVS, SINA, CMI, DLB, AA, TEX, HSC, BIDU, CCL, SCCO, FDX, GR, JNPR

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

For a holiday-shortened trading week, last week proved interesting as Middle East concerns over the previous weekend delivered a sizeable downside gap to kick off trading Tuesday.  That was followed by further selling pressure into Thursday, before a relief rally finally arrived.  The indexes finished off their lows Thursday and then posted across-the-board gains Friday, but for the week the major averages gave up 2%.

In the big picture, that’s certainly not a lot.  We’ve been rallying since March of 2009, with the most recent leg having started on September 1 of last year.  It’s been quite a while since we saw anything but dips getting bought, and this one may prove to be the same as all previous pullbacks.  What’s a little different is the fact that in the short term, we’ve not seen a multi-day pullback since mid-January, so that may keep traders on heightened alert in the days ahead.

The situation in the Middle East could still escalate further, so the bulls aren’t free from worry just yet.  What they do have is an established uptrend and opponents (bears) who have little confidence at this point.  That could result in a trading range up here for a little while, which is my hunch at the moment.

I expect the day-to-day action to remain headline-sensitive for a little longer, but now that we’ve gotten an initial pullback and a bit of a rebound, it could keep the volatility up and that’s good for trading.  Last week I kept my timeframe shortened to day trading, but am expecting this week we’ll see more swing setups emerge and provide some multi-day moves.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: GPOR, DVN, WCG, FDX, OXY

Swing Trading Candidates:

OXY recently left a multi-week base to head higher, and last week we saw this one pull back just slightly to find support above that prior resistance zone.  That’s technically positive, and now I’ve got my eye on this consolidation.  A push past the upper descending trend line at $103.45 will trigger a buy for me, as that could free up this stock to head higher once again. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Bullish Watch:

NXPI, ATW, TSO, CNQ, OXY, PXD, BHI, OAS, PTEN, DVN, DAN, GMCR, NBR, WNR, TLM, CVE, SLW, GPOR, WCG, WOOF, HS, BP

Bearish Watch:

TIF, CMI, AIG, FCX, WLT, BIDU, WMS, FDX, GR, MELI, SCCO

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market attempted to stabilize today, but it sure wasn’t an impressive effort on the part of the bulls.  New pullback lows were set in the S&P and DJIA, while the NAZ and RUT each respected and held above Wednesday’s lows.  In the end, the indexes finished mixed and little-changed.

The one bright spot in today’s session was the fact that we did finish off the lows of the day, thanks to some afternoon buying in the final 2 hours of the day.  It may be that this market had simply become short-term sold out and it was time for shorts to cover, but today’s reduced volume doesn’t imply the buyers were doing much – after all, they’ve been missing all week long.

As we head into tomorrow’s session, I’m averse to new swing trades.  Most charts are simply in poor shape and need a little more time before the patterns are sufficient enough to warrant multi-day trades.  For me, the smaller the pattern, the shorter the timeframe for that trade will be, and tonight the patterns which are setting up I just don’t trust for anything but day trades.  Additionally, we could come in on Monday morning to a sizeable gap in either direction should we happen to see any significant events in the Middle East over the weekend.  That makes holding over the weekend more of an earnings-announcement-like coin-toss, which I strictly avoid for the sake of risk management.

There are some setups I like for quick plays on Friday, but other than that I think it’s best to maintain a cash position and wait for more technical clues to emerge – and they will soon, one way or another.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: PXD, MERC, MTW, GMCR, FST

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

SRZ, MTW, NXPI, SD, YOKU, KLAC, XEC, KEG, PXD, SM, LDK, MERC, MAKO, DVN, DAN, BGCP, GMCR

Bearish Watch:

CIT, DLB, FST

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff