Good evening StockBandits!

An upbeat start this morning saw a brief attempt at a gap fill, but the buyers prevailed and the market held its ground in positive territory.  From the morning lows, the market was able to trend quietly higher throughout the session, going out just a short distance from its highs by the closing bell.

Yesterday’s upside reversal therefore found follow through with today’s action, taking the indexes each closer to their respective descending trend lines.  The one standout in that regard tonight is the DJIA, which cleared its descending trend line today.  The trend lines aren’t the ultimate level to watch, however, but merely the next ones to approach.  Beyond them still stand the prior bounce highs, which were formed on the rebound from the initial pullback from the February peaks.

The market is showing some momentum right now, despite the V-shaped recovery from the recent lows.  Technical traders like myself see this as a high-risk area to be initiating new buys, but as of yet we’ve not seen the bounce run out of gas.  My plan is to respect the price action and take a few short-term plays as they come along, particularly since there are several technical reasons to avoid initiating new buys for anything but quick flips.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: TSO, EMN, URI, CVI

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

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The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A pullback this morning gave the appearance of a 2nd day of declines with the downside seemingly gaining some early traction.  It looked like the market was starting to roll over after its V-shaped sharp bounce from last week’s lows and yesterday’s stall-out, and technically it certainly could have accelerated to the downside.  However, the dip was bought, and the indexes moved positive by mid-day, where they remained for the rest of the session.

Today’s upside reversal from a weak morning no doubt sucked in some bears who are tonight second-guessing their positions.  That would suggest the bulls are sitting pretty tonight, but they can’t breathe easily yet either with descending trendlines still at levels above current levels.  That means this bounce could still result in a lower short-term high, leaving us with a mixed bag at the moment from a technical standpoint.  Such is the nature of a correcting market, and it will likely keep us on our toes for a little while longer.

More patterns are building after just a couple of quieter days in the market than what we had been seeing lately, so I’m seeing more potential swing candidates in the charts for the days ahead.  Time will tell for sure, but at least for now the news flow is allowing the price action to follow a more orderly fashion.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: LULU, CVI, CTRP, RCL, FOSL, ULTA, BHI, SPRD, PXP

Swing Trading Candidates:

PXP has bounced from its low of two weeks ago to build this bearish rising wedge.  This pattern is bearish in that it often gets resolved to the downside, and thus creates a lower short-term high if confirmed.  I’ll be going short upon a break of the lower rising trend line at $35.40. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

[table “10” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Another sizeable gap hit the market today as pre-market buy orders built up on the heels of a quiet weekend in Japan and what looks to be the start of some changes in Libya.  The opening minutes provided just about the only excitement, however, as the indexes topped early in the session and then spent the remainder of the day in choppy sideways trading ranges.

Volume failed to confirm today’s upside as well, and was well below average in each case.  Given the combination of little intraday follow through and light volume on the third straight up day (and following a pair of weak finishes on Thursday and Friday), this isn’t the kind of setup that inspires big confidence for the bulls.  Yes, they’ve seen plenty of V-shaped recoveries over the past couple of years, but those were one-off pullbacks which were quickly erased.  At this point, we’ve got 1 confirmed lower high and this bounce could still quite easily lead to a 2nd.  Stated otherwise, this appears to be a bounce within the intermediate-term correction.

I’m still not trusting of this bounce, and intend to remain in cash on Tuesday, instead sticking with day trades.  The daily charts of many stocks are still obviously quite messy with the wide-ranging volatility of just the past few sessions, plus we’re still getting big gaps.  That makes holding overnight positions (swing trades) very difficult at best since risk can’t be managed in the same manner as it can be when the market is trending better.  That’s perfectly alright though, as there are times when capital preservation is the best plan, and right now is one such time.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: URI, CVI, WSH, BHI, INFY, JAZZ, ULTA, OC, PRU, FCX

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “8” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The indexes shed 2% last week, despite a pair of up days on Thursday and Friday, as Japan nuclear concerns and continued unrest in the Middle East weighed on the confidence of Wall Street.  Even the bounces we saw on Thursday and Friday were characterized by intraday selling (closes which were below the opening prices), reminding us that in a correction phase like this, bounces tend to get sold.

That’s a big shift from the buy-all-dips mentality this market had shown for so many weeks and months.  And while this correction is healthy to see (since it can actually perpetuate the bull market if it stays relatively shallow), it has arrived with considerably higher volatility than we’ve seen in some time.  We’re getting more frequent large overnight gaps, frequent reversals, and wider daily ranges.

Such is the nature of a short-term change of character, but while the uncertainty runs high the sidelines aren’t at all a bad place to be.  Once things quiet down a bit on the technical front, some excellent opportunities will emerge.  In the meantime, it’s important to exhibit patience and a willingness to stick with only the best setups which offer shortened timeframes, tighter stops, or ideally both for new trades.

Since Friday’s closing bell, air strikes have begun in Libya to enforce the no-fly zone, which could shift the attention back to the Middle East this week – particularly if things remain quiet at the Fukushima Plant in Japan in the days ahead.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: SVVS, JAZZ, MON, IPI, AFL

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “7” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market gapped higher this morning following a pair of big declines and a quiet news front, inviting buyers off the sidelines ahead of the opening bell in hopes of participating in an oversold bounce.  The early strength proved to be the extent of the upside for most of the indexes, as the early strength failed to find any meaningful follow through.

Today’s inside bars on the daily charts offer little to be excited about tonight.  Volume waned compared to the levels seen in the prior two days, suggesting this was more of a dead-cat bounce and knee-jerk relief rally than a positive change of character.  On top of that, intraday we actually saw some selling take place in the NAZ and RUT between the opening and closing bells, reminding us that in the midst of a market correction, bounces get sold.

It’s still a news-driven market right now, and the frequent large overnight gaps we’re getting leave me content to stay on the sidelines in terms of ending each day in cash.  At some point the dust will settle and we’ll likely have our hands full with great technical setups, but right now I’m only willing to trust stocks for a few hours at most, which makes me a day trader heading into Friday.  The sidelines have prevented pain in recent weeks while others suffer from sudden losses, and that’s a huge advantage we have as short-term traders.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: MDR, MTZ, CAT, WHR, DECK

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “6” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A weak open this morning found some tentative buyers as the early gap was attempting to fill.  However, a little over an hour into the session, the selling intensified and stocks trended lower into mid-afternoon.  We did see a late-day bounce from the lows of the session, but the indexes suffered more technical damage with new pullback lows being set.

The situation in Japan is clearly the primary focus right now, but there’s a mixture of opinions surrounding it.  Some are proclaiming that things are “out of control” while others suggest this is one big overreaction by the market.  There’s no question that Japan has suffered immensely already, and there are economic implications tied to a major country shutting down plants while they tend to more basic needs.  However, the issue this market is facing is one of uncertainty due to there being no consensus for what to expect going forward.

Traders tend to sell first and ask questions later, and that’s preventing this market from being able to stabilize.  We’ve undercut support zones and trend lines in recent days, and that also opens the door for more downside as the shift takes place from buy-all-dips (just a few weeks ago) to sell-all-bounces.  Yesterday, anyone who tried to short into the weakness was caught leaning the wrong way as the market spent the rest of the day recovering.  Today, anyone who attempted to buy the dip was punished as the bounce failed.

The market will continue to humble traders left and right, not only because it has a tendency to do so, but because the tape remains extremely headline-sensitive.  A rebound will take place at some point, but this is not the place to step out in blind faith that the worst is over.  We’ve seen corrections of 6-7% off the highs, and it’s certainly possible that the pullback hasn’t been completed.  The hard part in trading often is to wait patiently, but that’s the best course of action with uncertainty running so high right now.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: AN, GMCR, IL, WHR

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “5” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Overseas selling pressure tied to continued nuclear meltdown concerns in Japan left the US futures deep underwater this morning ahead of the opening bell.  Stocks gapped down significantly, with the NAZ down some 82 points right after the bell.  From there, we saw a steady recovery attempt take place throughout the remainder of the session, allowing the market to chip away at the morning gap and fill more than half of it.

Today’s move constitutes a technical breakdown, as we just closed decisively beneath short-term support zones which the market had been contending with yesterday.  We’ve also set new pullback lows on both an intraday and closing basis, so this is not a bullish technical setup.  At the same time, today’s rebound from the opening lows shows that stocks had become a bit short-term oversold, which makes this a very tricky spot for embracing even a short-term bias in either direction.  As a result, I’m sticking with only short-term setups heading into tomorrow, because this market is so headline-driven right now and all those headlines are coming out of the Middle East or Japan.  That makes for a very ‘gappy’ environment, which adds considerable risk for swing trading.  I’ll take some swings as they come along, but tonight I’m all cash and intend to keep my exposure limited at best until things on either the technical or geopolitical front settle down – and they will.

Many of the bases which had been building on the charts of individual stocks were negated today with wide-ranging bars and closes outside the trading ranges.  Those mixed signals offer little of value to us as traders, so it’s imperative right now to stick with clean setups – even if they’re limited.  Those will allow us to be decisive with entries and exits, and otherwise avoid the noise that we’re seeing right now.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: AN, SVVS, LULU, FWLT

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “4” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market offered a little something for everyone today with a downside opening gap, a quick gap fill (for the NAZ & RUT), a selloff to new lows, and a choppy grind higher from there.  In the end, the indexes finished red across the board, but not by much.

Right now, the bulls are doing their best to maintain the low ends of the wide trading ranges we’ve established in recent weeks.  There’s a sense that if we start to see more selling kick in, it could quickly accelerate as more traders identify continuation of the mild correction we’ve seen so far.  At this point, we could work our way back up into the range from this area after what may prove to be a head-fake breakdown these past few days, or we could see more profit-taking kick in, which I believe would rapidly lead to more intense selling pressure.

Regardless of which direction this market heads, there are setups building for both bullish and bearish patterns.  That means we should see more action soon in one way or another, but in the short term it’s important we allow those patterns to mature before seeking entries.  I’ll spend some time in tonight’s video outlining those setups so you can not only put them on your watch lists, but so that you can also understand what it is I’d like to see in them before I feel they’re ready for trades.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: PLCM, RAX, LCAPA, URI, UA, HSC, CF, MON, POT, MOS, XLNX, MCHP, SWKS, SVVS, KKR, WYNN, CSC, IPI

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “3” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Last week we saw continued volatility as well as a pullback as the market grappled with continued Middle East concerns.  The indexes moved toward the lower ends of their ranges, leaving traders to wonder whether recent support would hold or fold.

On Thursday night here I mentioned we were beginning to test (or in the case of the NAZ break) support, but that the possibility still loomed for a head-fake and a reversal back up into the range.  On Friday, news out of Japan with a massive earthquake and tsunami warnings in multiple countries (including the US) was plenty of incentive for the selling to continue on the heels of Thursday’s big decline.  Instead, we saw the market rebound as key levels were again respected.

That means a potential trap for bears who were looking to short support breaks in hopes of downside continuation, as they’re now caught in a situation where a bit more strength could drive them to cover their positions.  In the meantime, the bulls have a good opportunity to maintain the trading range by offering support on dips, so whatever happens, it’s sure to be an interesting battle.  It’s possible that this range persists a bit longer, particularly given how many traders are betting on an upside breakout or downside breakdown.

At this point, I’m cautious of the short side given the fact that in the last two sessions, support has been respected and currently is holding.  However, this isn’t a market that’s shown us much follow through at all in recent weeks, so I’m still looking to keep most trades short-term until the range is left behind.  Day trades have produced some excellent moves (such as OPEN on Friday moving higher by nearly $3 after triggering), so there’s still opportunity for those willing to play intraday.  I remain in cash tonight, but am eyeing one potential new swing trade, and won’t mind adding more if we start to see some better continuation from this market.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: UA, PPO, AN, RAX

Swing Trading Candidates:

RAX has pulled back in recent weeks while remaining in an uptrend, and tonight this stock is sitting just beneath a descending trend line.  If price can clear the trend line at $37.50, it may be freed to move higher.  I’ll be going long if that level is cleared, and will keep a pretty tight stop on this one should it happen to trigger and then fail.  As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this trade are found on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

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The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The long-awaited break from the trading range we’ve been watching for finally took place today as stocks gapped lower and never recovered.  The opening prices were down enough to undercut the rising trend lines for each of the indexes, and shortly after we had broken below the lows of the past two weeks as well.  The market finished right near its lows of the day, giving us (at least initially) a decisive move out of the range.

The game isn’t over for the bulls yet though.  We’ve seen plenty of head fakes before, so bears should be aware tonight that an upside reversal could still occur, despite today’s big technical breakdown.  However, now that the period of indecision has been resolved, it’s likely that bounces going forward will get sold as more bulls recognize they’ve been trapped and a more meaningful correction may be setting in.

The DJIA gave up 12,000 with today’s weakness, with each of the averages shedding 1.8%.  The NAZ could have been worse, but for the strength in SBUX (up 10%).  Regardless, we’ve been looking for a resolution in one direction or another, and today it appears as though we’ve gotten it.

I’m pleased to have been sitting in cash, not only for the indecision of the recent trading range, but also for today’s harsh breakdown which many stocks participated in.  If you’re still long anything which has technically broken down, it’s not too late to exit.  I’ve always found it easier to book a loss and move on to better opportunities (shorts, sidelines, other buys, etc.) than to fight an uphill battle when a stock has given up important support and puts me in the position of needing a rebound.  ‘Wants’ are fine in trading, but it’s the ‘needs’ which can leave your account very vulnerable to damage.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: OPEN, ULTA, SGI, F, GE

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

OPEN, SKH, RPRX, NTES, SVVS, EAT, ULTA, VXZ, SGI

Bearish Watch:

KSU, MGM, MTW, TRW, F, MMI, SPW, BGC, URI, CSC, GE

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff