Good evening StockBandits!

Last week we saw some very interesting price action in the market, to say the least.  It began with Monday’s downgrade of the US debt by Standard & Poor’s from Stable to Negative, sending stocks to new pullback lows off the early-April peak.  However, by the end of the week we saw the NAZ and DJIA making new April highs.  Upside gaps took place on the final 3 sessions of the week, with each of them followed by additional buying by the end of the session.

At this point, we now have technical proof of the emergence of the bulls (again), as well as some confirmation of higher lows on the daily charts of the indexes.  The S&P 500 is just a couple points shy of clearing the prior bounce highs (from the March lows), and the RUT has a little ground to make up, but apparently this market is finding some encouragement from the earnings announcements we’ve seen so far.  Many more companies have yet to report, so we could see the complexion change a bit in the days ahead.  Some rest and digestion of this move wouldn’t at all be a negative thing, although the buyers are in gear and don’t seem eager to relent.

Volume sagged a bit on Thursday, but with a 3-day weekend and a sizeable move which preceded it, it was little surprise to see traders stepping away early or simply doing less ahead of Easter weekend.  Things are sure to stay interesting in the coming days, as we have a 2-day Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday with the announcement on interest rates and the accompanying policy statement at 2:15pm ET Wednesday.

Needless to say, it’s a time to stay on our toes and keep working the charts, just as we always do.  That prevented us from embracing the recent pullback as a downside reversal, and served as a good reminder to keep an open mind in the market – especially when it’s such a news-driven environment.

For Monday: there will be no Broadcast as I have a personal engagement which will prevent me from producing the newsletter.  Things will return to normal on Tuesday.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: ANF, DKS, ICO, CCL, GOOG, EXK, MAKO, PRGO, PAY

Swing Trading Candidates:

PAY just pulled back for a few weeks but has maintained its overall uptrend.  This looks like a potential buying opportunity, particularly if the stock is able to resume its trend.  I’m watching for a push north of the descending trend line at $53.80 as a trigger for a buy. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

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The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Stocks gapped higher this morning on the heels of encouraging earnings reports last night, as well as strength in overseas markets.  The morning gap was held and built upon due to the lack of profit-taking.  The news of downgraded US debt which struck fear in the hearts of market participants on Monday morning was mirrored today with enthusiasm, serving as a reminder of just how short-sighted the market tends to be.  That’s exactly why I’m a trader and not a long-term prognosticator.

Today’s strength took us right back to key levels in the big 3, as the NAZ again tagged 2802, the S&P 500 tagged 1332, and the DJIA finished just above the recent highs at 12450.  That makes the next few sessions potentially pivotal, as the bulls have another big opportunity here to press their edge.

Needless to say, Monday’s losses have now been fully erased, and it sure didn’t take long.  This market has had plenty of opportunity to sell off deeper in recent weeks after the pace of the rally from late-March and early-April slowed, and yet it has held up quite well.  It appears as though we’ve just established, at least for the time being, a higher low on the daily charts.  Stocks are climbing the proverbial wall of worry here, so let’s keep an open mind here as this unfolds.

Tonight in the after-hours session, the futures are pointing higher once again after encouraging earnings reports, which could produce another upside gap tomorrow morning.  With Thursday being the last trading session of the week (since the markets are closed in observance of Good Friday here in the U.S.), and with a quick rebound from Monday’s lows, we could see the early strength used for some profit-taking.  It’s still a trader’s market until we see all the indexes reach new 52-week highs, so keep that in mind as we head into tomorrow.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: ICE, PAY, CNX, GPOR

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “29” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Today we saw the indexes stabilize further after Monday morning’s selling, adding to the possibility that a higher low may be in the works.  We saw attempts made to fill the Monday morning gaps, although as of yet they’ve not completely been filled (NAZ 2764, S&P 1319, RUT 834, DJIA 12341).

Some are concerned that the nature of this bounce isn’t intense enough, and therefore it could fizzle out quickly.  I can’t argue with that, although I’m also not interested in shorting into it at this point.  For the time being, a higher low is still possible, so it may simply be that this rally is initially slow to gather some steam.  That still leaves room for upside acceleration if it gets embraced in the coming days, so it’s important not to count out the bulls just because they’ve been idle for a few weeks.

I’m still working the charts continually to keep track of bases and patterns which are building and maturing.  The shake-up from Monday eliminated some of them, but there are still quite a few intact which could develop into solid trades if they begin to gain traction.  The thick of earnings season is approaching quickly on the horizon, so I’m keeping a close eye on those events as well in order to avoid any surprises.  Lately I’ve taken very few swing trades, but as patterns mature and confirm I’ll look to add more overnight exposure.

Tonight I’m doing a webinar in conjunction with Worden, and I hope you can join us! Here’s the link where you’ll see details & be able to register for 30min of stock & pattern discussion, followed by 15min of Q&A.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: MFN, HANS, CPO, CREE, TER, RAX, FLIR

Swing Trading Candidates:

RAX has spent the past couple of weeks building a symmetrical triangle as it digests the prior advance.  This one looks about ready to resolve the triangle, so I’m watching for a continuation move to begin if the upper trend line gets broken.  I’ll be a buyer if this one clears $43 on its way back up. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

FLIR has pulled back to test prior resistance, which now is serving as support.  I’m watching the descending trend line just overhead for a push back up through it, as that would free up this stock to rebound from this support zone.  I’ll be a buyer if the $33.30 level is cleared. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

[table “28” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

This morning, the futures were lower to set a negative tone in the early going, but then a half hour before the opening bell news broke of Standard & Poor’s cutting their rating on US debt from Stable to Negative.  Although it still maintains its AAA rating, the news was enough to produce a pretty good downside flush.  Stocks gapped significantly lower at the opening bell, and trended lower from there.  Later in the morning, the market was able to stabilize and then grind its way partially back up in the afternoon.

Today’s selling took the indexes to a new pullback low, doing little to inspire confidence.  However, the day was not without its positives.  First, we did see an intraday recovery attempt, which showed that there was some buying taking place on the dip.  Second, we held last week’s lows on the close.  Finally, today’s move may have shaken out some bulls who may wish to re-enter upon further strength.  That means this could still result in a higher low, but it’ll require further stabilization and eventually a turn back up to challenge the early-April highs.

Many stocks had been building bases and patterns which were fouled up by today’s bars.  I have no problem eliminating those from my watch lists, but I was encouraged by the stocks which were able to hold their ground.  There are still quite a few setups which could offer some potential in the days ahead, so we’ll just need to continue to work the charts in search of the best risk/reward profiles.

As a reminder, I’ll be doing a webinar on Tuesday night at 8pm ET, and I hope you can join us! Here’s the link where you’ll see details & be able to register for 30min of stock & pattern discussion, followed by 15min of Q&A.  As a result, my Tuesday night Broadcast will be abbreviated.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: SFLY, RAX, SOHU, MAKO, CTRP, UA, NTES, VMW, JDSU

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “27” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market ended last week on a slightly upbeat note, but all in all it was a quiet week.  The pullback from the early-April highs continued on Monday and Tuesday, but from there the market was able to stabilize for the remainder of the week.  Net changes from the prior Friday were all negative, but less than 1% in each of the indexes.

Currently, the bulls have a great opportunity to step in and help to confirm a higher low on the daily charts.  We’ve seen a multi-week rest, not only with some lateral price from late-March into the first week of April, but also with a mild pullback which has since followed.  Should the buyers step in here, we aren’t far from the recent highs (or 52-week highs), and stocks could quickly gather momentum if strength returns.

The rest phase has made for very few plays outside of a day trading timeframe, but at the same time it’s been a very productive stretch for many charts which are building some higher-quality bases.  The larger bases are best for multi-day plays, and with many multi-week patterns now starting to mature, we could see quite a few swing trades coming to light in the days ahead.  I’ll of course monitor the earnings calendars closely (as should you) in order to avoid any surprises, but if this market can start to show some better follow through, many stocks have potential to make meaningful moves after the recent period of indecision.

Finally, I’ll be doing a webinar this Tuesday night at 8pm ET, and I hope you can join us!  Here’s the link where you’ll see details & be able to register for 30min of stock & pattern discussion, followed by 15min of Q&A.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: RAX, MELI, FOSL, JDSU, CLF, BWA

Swing Trading Candidates:

BWA recently sold off 7 of 8 sessions right to an area of support.  It appears to be stabilizing here, so I like the risk/reward here for a turn back up ahead of earnings (Thurs, April 28) if the stock can clear the steep trend line at $72.50. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

[table “26” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The indexes spent considerable time in negative territory today, hitting new pullback lows in the process.  However, intraday we saw a slow recovery take hold, and by the closing bell 3 of the 4 indexes (NAZ was the lone exception) reversed to finish positive on the day.

We’ve been watching this pullback run its course lately, and as a result I’ve stayed mostly sidelined with the exception of day trades and one open swing trade.  Selectivity has allowed me to avoid the noise, and I’ve been waiting for the market to give some kind of a signal directionally.  With a good shot at selling off hard, the market has proven resilient, and this has so far been a healthy digestion of the rally off the March lows.

We have yet to see if upside continuation is going to occur, but today’s bars on the daily charts of the indexes show some potential for a bounce in the short term, so tonight I’m primarily looking at the long side when it comes to new plays for Friday.  That’s not a directional bias, as I’m open to whatever this market happens to do, but simply an observation that perhaps the pullback has run its course.  Stated otherwise, technically it looks like there’s a chance to head higher from here, so let’s see if the buyers want it badly enough.

The key at this point is not just rushing out to buy stocks in hopes that the market provides a lift.  Rather, it’s imperative to identify pivots on the charts, which if crossed would indicate that the buyers are back in gear.  I cannot stress enough the importance of keeping stops in place and waiting for signals to occur, because if a rally is going to unfold, it isn’t necessary to catch the first few ticks of it.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: TEX, BTU, CAT, LEA, ROK

Swing Trading Candidates:

ROK recently cleared prior highs to reach new multi-year highs, and has since pulled back.  On this dip, previous resistance is now serving as support, and this one may look to head higher from here.  I’ll be going long if the descending trend line gets cleared at $92.65, setting a stop just below this week’s lows in case this stock triggers and then reverses. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

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The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market attempted to rebound today with a strong start and an upside gap.  Earnings from JPM provided the early optimism, along with the multi-day pullback from the highs of last week, but the catalysts faded and so did the morning strength.  Before long, the NAZ had filled its gap and the bulls seemed to be nowhere in sight.  After a test of negative territory, some buying eventually emerged to push the indexes back into the green by the end of the day, but it was far from an impressive rally.

At this point, the market looks to be attempting to stabilize, but the buyers still seem to lack conviction.  That may change in the next few days and perhaps we’ll see a better bounce, but for the moment there’s still plenty of indecision, and that deserves our respect.

I’ve said it already this week but I cannot stress enough the importance of not overtrading while the market is range-bound.  This is a daytrading environment, as there’s limited follow through and reversals are frequent (just see today’s intraday charts as Exhibit A).  Once we see a cleaner overall pattern emerge, we can then expect better momentum to arrive, which should mean a far better swing trading environment.  Until then, patience is imperative along with preserving capital – it’s just too easy to get chopped up in these trading ranges.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: CAT, FOSL, VRUS, WTW, AEM

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “24” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The market gapped lower this morning following a disappointing earnings release from Alcoa, the first big name to report, as well as news that Japan was raising its nuclear threat level to 7 – the highest level and one which corresponds to the Chernobyl accident of 1986.  After an initial bounce attempt (which failed to fill the gap), stocks headed south until late-morning when they finally stabilized.  And although the indexes were able to lift slightly from their worst levels, they still shed about 1% on the day.

The recent quiet activity we’ve seen in the indexes carved out a short-term trading range, but today’s acceleration lower shows the market is now in pullback mode.  To change the status of the current environment isn’t such a bad thing, particularly since lately traders have been reluctant to embrace another push higher before seeing a pullback.  This dip will help to shake out some weak holders and may invite some buyers into the picture at lower prices.  At the very least, the market has a good shot at producing a higher low on this pullback, which should encourage the bulls.

While we let the slide play out, it’s important to keep in mind a couple things.  First, buying dips is best done once prices stabilize and a perceived pivot has emerged.  Stated otherwise, don’t try to catch the proverbial falling knife by simply buying because prices are lower than they were.  Taking a methodical approach means limiting risk, so watch prior resistance and support zones which could now serve as pivot areas for stocks.  Second, patience is absolutely critical here.  We’ve not seen much downside in this market over the past couple of years, so those who have bought on pullbacks have been paid handsomely each time they’ve done it.  Regardless, respecting the increasing rate of this dip will help to prevent premature entries, so be willing to sit on your hands until some clear patterns emerge.

Earnings season is officially underway, but it won’t really kick into high gear until the last week of April.  I can’t stress enough the importance of keeping a close eye on the calendars to avoid any surprises with overnights.

The market is still showing plenty of indecision at the moment, leaving many stocks still stuck inside of bases which are building.  Until that changes, despite my desire to be taking more swing trades, I’ll be staying selective tomorrow and sticking to day trades when it comes to new plays.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: COF, DKS, OCR, DFS, FOSL, DVA, ANF, HD, WNR, HUM, QLIK, DAR

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “23” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The indexes kicked off the new week with more indecision today as we saw prices unable to gather momentum in either direction.  The NAZ and S&P 500 both gave up a few points, leaving them just a short distance beneath recent resistance zones at 2802 and 1332, respectively.

Following the big bounce from the March lows, we’ve seen plenty of stalled-out price action which quite easily by now could have led to some accelerated profit-taking.  Instead, the market is holding in there rather well, not giving back much ground at all as it digests the recent run up.  That’s very positive for the bulls at the moment, so I’m still going to keep a close eye on the resistance zones just overhead for a potentially bullish signal if cleared.

Earnings season is starting to kick off, although it will be a couple more weeks until we’re really in the thick of things.  At any rate, it’s a good reminder to keep a close eye on the earnings calendars here and here, simply to avoid any surprises.

As this rest phase persists, it’s allowing more bases to build on the charts of individual stocks.  While that’s making things choppy and uneventful at the moment, eventually it should lead to some productive price action, which is positive.  The key is to allow the patterns to mature, rather than making anticipatory bets and hoping the market proves you correct.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: COV, FO, BRKS, OCR, QCOM, NVDA, LEA

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “22” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The indexes flirted with resistance zones last week, but ultimately made no real progress in either direction.  Following the recent run from the March lows, we had seen prices essentially stall out late last week, as the NAZ approached 2802 and the S&P 500 approached 1332 – the prior bounce highs in both cases.  Last week, we were able to cross those levels only briefly, but in the end finished just shy of those areas with the market backing off a bit on Friday.

Many are wondering now if the market is starting the process of rolling over.  However, despite the weak finish on Friday, volume doesn’t suggest a meaningful change of character at this point.  That could certainly still change, but for the time being it appears as though the market is simply putting in some rest.  Rest is good, even if it means some short-term choppy price action.  It allows new bases to form and new patterns to develop, which should result in some good trading opportunities once momentum resurfaces.  For now, we still have some resistance zones to keep a close eye on while we let the market continue to digest the recent run.  So long as we don’t see a big acceleration lower or downside volume start to pick up dramatically, this market could quite easily head higher in the weeks to come – particularly given the renewed fear of the bears and return of confidence of the bulls over the past few weeks.

Due to the lack of directional commitment at this point in the overall market, I’m only considering day trades for Monday’s session.  The best swing trading tends to be done by trading in the same direction as the overall market, and at this point we’re in a short-term rest phase until further technical evidence suggests otherwise.  For that reason, I’ll take new trades on Monday with intentions of grabbing the initial moves.

Tonight I’m going with the written format as I’ve been traveling this weekend, but will return to the usual video format on Tuesday. My notes and trade levels are provided on the charts below.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT.

Day Trading Candidates:

These are the trades I’m eyeing for potential plays tomorrow. I will not be holding these overnight, and will wait for these levels to be crossed before entering trades.  Please see the Day Trading Strategy for more details on how I manage these trades.

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

The Hit List will not be posted tonight as I am 100% cash overnight and there are no new swing trades for Tuesday. The Hit List typically contains stop and target levels for my swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff