Good evening StockBandits!

The long holiday weekend left traders apparently feeling like stocks were oversold enough to begin accumulating, as today started out with plenty of enthusiasm.  A gap up open was greeted with some additional strength, taking the NAZ and S&P 500 right back up to test recently broken support zones.

Those former support zones proved to be resistance however, and stocks turned lower to give back their morning gains and go red on the session.  A late-afternoon bounce arrived, and while it was far from impressive, it was just potent enough to nudge the market back into positive territory by the end of the day.  All told though, it was yet another win for the bears to have eliminated the morning strength in such deeply-oversold conditions.  Even though the market finished green, it had the distinct feeling of a failure to only see minor gains notched.

So many seem to have been looking for an obvious bounce here that it may have actually delayed the arrival of one.  As with any sentiment-related expectation, when traders are anticipating a move, they’ve likely already become positioned for it.  With many looking for a bounce in recent days, those traders may have largely already done their buying to act on that belief.  Clearly, there are still plenty of sellers remaining though, and that’s causing issues with this market gaining any upside traction.

I do think there are a few reasons to watch for a bounce, but I have not been buying ahead of its arrival.  For one, this market has been very reversal-prone for the past couple of months, and that could quite easily continue with a bounce.  Also, we have experienced a persistent slide over the past couple of weeks which has happened without relent.  Anytime the proverbial rubber band gets really stretched in one direction, it’s time to be on the lookout for a snapback move.  And finally, failures like we saw today erode trust in the upside, and that causes more to throw in the towel.  Once all trust is lost, the path of least resistance will shift again and make way for a rally.

Right now, that has yet to happen, and there are still plenty of bearish patterns worth trading after a review of tonight’s charts.  I’ll be keeping any shorts on a tight leash, but the inability of the buyers to produce a bounce just yet is still a glaring issue with the long side at the moment.

Heading into Wednesday, stocks with bearish charts are the ones that look the most ready for trades, so that’s where my focus will be.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: MON, BID, PCP, ITT, BIDU

Swing Trading Candidates:

BIDU has moved down within its trading range and now is resting on support.  A break could come any day, so I’m watching support for a break at $66 to initiate a short sale for a swing trade.  My stop & target levels will be on the Hit List post, as usual.

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Bullish Watch:

L, DPS, ROVI, VAR

Bearish Watch:

ADBE, LLL, PCP, ADSK, BID, FDX, AMZN, DRI, BIDU, ZION, MED, MON, POT, ITT, BYI, AGP, FWLT, RBC, CYN, F, CLF

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Hope your holiday weekend was a fun one and you’re rested and ready for a new week of trading.

Traders were apparently buying fireworks instead of stocks on Friday, as Thursday’s lows were in fact respected, yet more downside was seen on a closing basis.  An afternoon attempt at a rally was squashed in the final minutes of trading as the sellers emerged one last time to erase the gains, and perhaps to ensure that the buyers don’t get an ounce of confidence ahead of the weekend.

Whether this next week delivers the bounce we’ve been waiting for remains to be seen, but if there’s one thing we can say at this point, it’s that this market certainly is due for some green.  We’ve seen measured moves take place on the current decline, both in terms of duration and size, compared to the mid-May selloffs.  That adds to the notion that a bounce could arrive soon, aside from the deeply-oversold condition of this market.

What’s so interesting at a juncture like this is that both the bulls and bears are rooting for a relief bounce from here after having seen support zones violated across the board.  The bulls would love an opportunity to raise cash on a bounce, as many of them have likely missed their opportunities to sell on the way down.  A bounce would offer them a second chance.  The bears, on the other hand, know that many stocks are simply too stretched on the downside at this point to aggressively short.  A bounce would give them reason to book profits, and allow them to get repositioned on weak or failing rallies.

Clearly, we’re at a very interesting juncture here.  Anything is possible in this market, and it’s important to consider that as we head into Tuesday. This market could fall apart further, or it could gap lower and rebound, or it could finally put together the long-awaited relief bounce.

My game plan for Tuesday is straightforward.  Once I see some cleaner patterns emerge, I’ll look to do more swing trading.  Until then, my timeframe is going to remain short as there are simply no patterns which are sufficient at this point for holding overnight.  I’ll outline what I’m looking to trade and why in tonight’s video.

As always, I’m available for email help or via the comments here in the Hideout, so let me know if I can help and otherwise go get ’em tomorrow. I’ll see you back here then.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: FDX, AMZN, BIDU, ADBE, ADSK, AEL, BID

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

ADBE, L, ADSK, PPO, AEL, YGE

Bearish Watch:

BID, FDX, AMZN, DRI, BIDU

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

With relentless selling pressure now for the previous 8 sessions, the indexes have been annihilated since last week started.  “Oversold” is the word of the day, as the pace of the decline simply has become unsustainable.  Nonetheless, stocks were greeted with more heavy selling today right from the get-go.

All nearby support has been cracked, and yet so much selling has already been done, one has to wonder who’s left to sell on this particular down wave.  Logic would say that those who still have inventory on hand have decided to wait for a bounce, but the problem for them is that the market doesn’t always operate in a logical manner.

Speaking of bounces, I was sure expecting to see one today, but not in the way it occurred.  Rather than seeing a weak open and a gap-fill scenario, we simply saw steady selling which shook out more remaining bulls before a gradual lift from the lows set in.  Even that wasn’t enough to return the indexes to positive territory, but that might actually be a good thing.

Gradual turns can build momentum, whereas sharp moves tend to reverse.  We’ve sure seen a sharp move lower these past 2 weeks, and it may be beneficial for the bulls to not have put together a giant rally today.  Instead, traders can contemplate whether today’s minor recovery points to exhaustion, and we could see a little better bounce unfold in the days ahead because of it.  That’s no prediction, just one way it might play out.

Tomorrow morning we have the highly-anticipated jobs number, and some disappointment is very likely already priced into that event.  It’s also a Friday ahead of a 3-day July 4th weekend with the market observing it on Monday.  Typically this is among the lightest volume weeks of the year, so traders could quite easily step away from the screens and head out early after the week it’s already been.  Keep that in mind tomorrow, particularly in the afternoon, and stay selective because of it.

I have no interest in adding overnight exposure ahead of the long weekend, and the charts definitely aren’t in shape enough to warrant that anyway at this point.  We need to see a relief rally and some stabilization before taking new trades on either side of this tape, so for Friday, my timeframe is once again going to be day trading.  The sidelines has been a great place to be this week, so remember the importance of patience in trading.

Friendly Reminder: the market is closed on Monday, so I’ll see you back here with the next Broadcast on Monday evening.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: ADBE, GCI, ARBA, L, ADSK

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

ADBE, GCI, ARBA, L, ADSK, BID, PWER, PCP, PXD

Bearish Watch:

VXX

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A sharp selloff yesterday elevated the possibility for a narrow-range day today with the need for some rest.  That’s exactly how things shaped up early in the session with some quiet price action and a lack of momentum.  The indexes spent the morning in positive territory, but a growing impatience with the lackluster bounce left traders wondering whether they should sell again to avoid a deeper decline.

That delivered some afternoon selling, which not only erased the minor early gains, but accelerated the pace of the decline into the closing bell.  In the end the indexes gave up another 1% as they took out additional support zones to reach new correction lows.  Clearly, it was an ugly way to finish the quarter.

The scenario from here could easily play out with some kind of exhaustion move to the downside tomorrow before an upside reversal kicks in.  That isn’t to say that the lows would hold, but rather that the odds of a bounce are increasing exponentially by the day.  The QQQQ just shed 10% since last week, for example, with 8 consecutive declines.  While I’m not one to be over anxious to fade streaks, the fact that this decline is unsustainable and the breach of support zones opens the door for traders to get trapped with how easy the downside move has been.  The bears have faced no opposition lately, and anytime either side finds the waters that smooth, it’s an excellent clue to watch for a possible shift – even if it’s only short-term.

The next couple of days are going to be quite interesting, as we’re deeply oversold and facing the first day of a new quarter tomorrow.  Then we have Friday ahead of a long holiday weekend (with the market being closed on Monday in observance of Independence Day).  Friday could very well be a quiet day as traders disappear from their screens to head out for the holiday, and we’ve seen a lot of big moves on Thursdays in the past 2 months as well.  Therefore, tomorrow could prove to be pivotal if this market is going to reverse…we’ll just have to see.

I’ll outline what I’m looking for in tonight’s video, but the bottom line is that this is a spot to be very careful with new shorts and best to wait for signs of life before getting long.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: BIG, DRI, LEN, PCP, DIA, SPY, QQQQ

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

CBOE, LNCR, NTES, NEM

Bearish Watch:

GS, RAH, DWA, MFE, LEN, MON, DRI, MED, BIG

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

A steady pullback from the recent high was followed by a few days of inactivity.  It was uncertain whether that would prove to be stabilization before a bounce, or merely a rest before more selling.  That uncertainty disappeared today as stocks broke down hard, gapping lower and continuing south for the remainder of the day to post 3-4% declines in the major averages.

The NAZ and S&P 500 each marked new correction lows today as they took out both the June and May lows.  What was perhaps most notable was the fact that no attempt was made at a bounce from those zones, exhibiting the sheer lack of buying interest.  This of course means the bulls have squandered an opportunity at creating a higher low, and serves as an excellent reminder that we’re still in a correcting market environment.

What’s so tricky right now, however, is the fact that stocks are breaking down but are too extended near term to be shorting for anything but quick trades.  While the weakness could certainly persist before we see a relief bounce (or rest), most names have already made sizeable moves in the past 7 sessions, elevating the risk on initiating new short positions for timeframes outside of a few hours.  Keep in mind, we’ve seen market declines in 6 of those 7 sessions.  It’s important to recognize that even though some key levels have been broken, a snapback rally could kick in at any moment.

Heading into Wednesday, my game plan is to remain in cash and stick with intraday trades.  The dust needs to settle a bit before clean enough patterns for swing trading will emerge, so it’s important to protect capital in the meantime and let those trades come to us.

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: BIG, DRI, DWA, RAH

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

SRCL, DPS, EXPR, NEM

Bearish Watch:

MED, BIG, MDC, AGP, NTRI, DRI, LEN, DV, MFE, DWA, RAH

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

Today’s action was quite indecisive right from the start, with some intraday reversals preventing either side from gaining any lasting momentum.  In the end, the market finished little-changed from Friday’s levels, but yet in the red once again.

Some important levels are still being respected though, and that holds a little promise for now for the buyers.  Nonetheless, the bulls will need to get in gear soon and put cash to work if they want to produce that higher low they’re looking for, rather than simply stand aside and allow the bears to send stocks right back toward the lows.

If there’s one thing that’s been consistent about this market for the past couple of months, it’s the fact that reversals have come on a pretty regular basis.  Timing is everything in trading, but of course if an upside reversal arrives sooner than later, it would give the index charts a far better appearance for those who are looking for higher prices.  For the moment though, things are simply stabilizing, leaving the ball in the bulls’ court.

Heading into Tuesday, there are a handful of charts I like the looks of, but only for quick trades.  One of the swing trades from last night’s Broadcast triggered today (FAST), while the other (CTRP) did not and has been removed due to relative weakness today.  More notes are of course included in the Hit List post.

Overall, I’m staying conservative here while waiting for the next move to begin, and that should allow me to move quickly once this rest phase is completed.  I’ll cover my plays for tomorrow in tonight’s video – hope you enjoy it!

Here is tonight’s video:

The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

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Video Stocks Discussed: CRUS, NZ, AGP, FTI, CNW, DV

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

Bullish Watch:

AKAM, FFIV, SRCL, FAST, OVTI, ARMH, CRUS, NZ, NTES

Bearish Watch:

RL, DO, MED, HD, AGP, AMG, FTI, QCOM, WDC, PBR, UPS, CNW, GES, R, MON, FO, AGU, DV, LLL, ANF, CEDC, DRQ

The Hit List will be coming out soon with discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to watch for it.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Good evening StockBandits!

The major averages pulled back in a steady fashion last week, giving up 3-4% as the bulls went 1-for-5 on the week.  That pullback came right off the June highs, which of course were established after nearly a one-way rally up from the lows.  There’s been plenty of back and forth in this market, which means it’s still reversal-prone and very much catering to traders.

The good news at this point is that some stabilization seems to be setting in with Friday’s action, leaving the indexes just above some key levels.  In addition, the pullback has come on light volume, which suggests the buyers haven’t completely disappeared in an effort to raise cash.  And finally, with a steady pullback off the highs, this market still has good potential to establish a higher low on this dip.  Relentless moves tend to be more reversal-prone, and the lows are still a considerable distance away, and that raises the odds that at least a short-term tradeable bounce may arrive soon.

The key for the week ahead will be to see stocks show some signs of life again to help create that higher low look on the daily charts.  We’ve already seen higher highs created with the early-June highs being cleared last week, so the next element the bulls will be pulling for is going to be a higher low.  The opportunity is before them, so all eyes will be on the buyers this week to see if they can produce it.

It’s too early at this point to declare this a major turning point for the market, and in fact many still fully expect to see the June lows penetrated eventually.  Things may play out that way, but for now as short-term traders, our job is to identify good opportunities and capitalize on them.  Things look somewhat short-term oversold at this point, so it’s a good spot to exercise caution with new shorts.  Shortened timeframes are always best in reversal-prone markets, so keep that in mind this week as well.

For tonight, my notes are on the charts below for index levels and potential trades I’m eyeing for Monday.

Please leave your comments and/or questions below if you have any, I always enjoy the interaction.

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Swing Trading Candidates:

FAST has pulled back in recent days to create a falling wedge pattern, which is bullish since these usually are resolved to the upside.  Given the upward momentum this stock exhibited prior to this wedge pattern, I like the potential for another leg up soon.  I’ll be a buyer for a swing trade if this one clears the upper trend line at $52.75.  My stop and target levels are displayed in the Hit List post.

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

CTRP broke out two weeks ago and then last week pulled back on light volume.  The pullback held the breakout zone (dashed line below), which is very positive.  This one has had some nice recent momentum, so a turn higher from here could produce another nice advance.  I’ll be a buyer if the trend line is broken at $44.40 for a swing trade.  My stop and target levels are displayed in the Hit List post.

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Day Trading Candidates:

These are the trades I’m eyeing for potential plays tomorrow. I will not be holding these overnight, and will wait for these levels to be crossed before entering trades.

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Chart courtesy of StockFinder

Bullish Watch:

ARBA, VMW, AXE, CAT, MMM, CLF, ANV, SRCL, NAV, CTRP, YGE, CMI, CF, OVTI, OIH, AONE, EGO, CRUS, MCO, VECO, XCO, FAST, IVN, RINO, UTX, PCAR, CDE, LNCR, SFL, BEAV

Bearish Watch:

BIG, QCOM, BP, MON, MOS, GPN, CECO, DV

The Hit List post will follow shortly with my trade levels for the swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff