The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.
RTI & JNPR stopped, HON removed (pattern failure), FCN & FDX & X added
Open Position Notes:
CVX bounced slightly on Friday but overall continues to hover not far from the breakout zone, implying it just might not be ready to run yet. I’m leaving my stop loss as-is, and will be patient to see if this one will pick a direction or continue higher in the coming days.
Closed Positions:
RTI gave me a nice run and was acting like it really wanted to break down hard, particularly after last Thursday’s selling pressure. I tightened my stop accordingly after the 1st Target had been reached, and was subsequently taken out on Friday with the market rebound. I’m out of this trade with a very nice 6.2% gain in just a few days.
JNPR had shown plenty of relative weakness to the market in recent weeks, and attempted to really start to crumble on Thursday. The rebound later in the session was an indication that it might be hesitating a bit, and I tightened my stop heading into Friday. I was taken out very quickly after the open on Friday as the stock bounced sharply. This ended up being a breakeven trade, which is the 2nd-best scenario for a failed pattern, so I’m out with no harm.
Jefff:
I heard the TOS Shadow Trader mention that JNPR got an analyst upgrade on Friday after it started showing signs of strength. Your stockpicking was fine. No one could have predicted the timing on the analyst’s call.
Thank you Bill, you’re absolutely correct…upgrades/downgrades are unforeseeable and we just have to take the good setups and let the law of averages play out. I liked the play, but was glad to have tightened my stop!
Positive article on FDX in Barron’s. Often stocks move about 2 days before the Barron’s article (right….people know that it is going to be highlighted)….so I’d be more cautious about a fade here early in the week, as the traders who went in on Thursday/Friday get out as the rest of the public buys on Monday/Tuesday. I will probably day trade rather than swing trade this because of that, or will at least be more careful about position size and perhaps moving stop up more aggressively if it triggers.
Hey Jon,
Appreciate you sharing your thoughts. The fade trade is definitely one to watch for, in all cases for that matter. With FDX, I will stick with the parameters I outlined, as the max risk for the trade if stopped at the stop loss would be 2.7%, which I’m fine with. Plus, I’ll only be entering if it can clear the $82.25 trigger. Given that it’s still down from last Wednesday’s close, it could be that the article you mentioned gives it a nudge to start again – we’ll see.
Regardless, I respect your personalization of the trade management – that is exactly the spirit here. My levels are right for me, but yours may differ, and that’s perfectly fine. What I’m outlining is my plan that you can take what you like from it and adapt to make it your own. Nice work!