TheStockBandit.com

Swing Trading and momentum investing stock pick newsletter and swing trading service.

Hit List 6-2-2011

By Filed Under: Hit List

The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.

0602-2011-TL
trading-list-legend
ARBA closed

Open Position Notes:

KKR held up again today, adding just a few cents but once again on a day when the overall market showed some weakness.  That implies this stock wants to head higher, but with it still hanging around the trigger area I’ll suspend judgment for now.  Nonetheless, with a raised stop in place and some stability over the past couple of sessions, I like what I’m seeing so far.  If the market bounces, I would expect this one to participate but we’ll see.

0602-2011-PF

Closed Positions:

ARBA tried to recover this morning from a shaky start, but couldn’t gain traction and instead yesterday’s weakness carried over into today’s session.  That took the stock down to my adjusted stop loss, taking me out of the 2nd half of this trade at breakeven.  With Target 1 getting hit, this position netted a 2.8% profit, a modest gain.  That’s not as good as it was at one point, but with the market weakening so quickly and with the second half stopping out, I’ll take the gain.  This stock may now need to test the lower end of its range again, so I’ll standby and see what happens before considering another entry.

Bandit Broadcast for 6-1-2011

By Filed Under: Videos

Good evening StockBandits!

Whatever goodwill the market had built up in the past several sessions with the rally from support was completely erased today.  A turn lower in the futures in the premarket was based on disappointing economic data, and it set the tone for the entire day.  That produced a small downside gap on the open, and from there we saw a series of lower highs throughout the session as nonstop selling hit the tape.

Today’s decline took the S&P right back near support, while the DJIA made new pullback lows from its May high.  That kind of a relentless slide after a multi-day rally reminds us that prices can break down much faster than they often rise, and that the market can be quite fickle.  It also reminds us that the price action is the best gauge, as last night I noted here that there simply weren’t many candidates out there after a multi-day run.  Stocks needed rest at the very least, and that offered some very useful caution for today.

The big question at this point is where do we go now?  While I don’t know the answer to that, I will say that today’s abrupt change of direction did more than just some technical damage.  Not only did the indexes give back quickly some hard-won ground, but the bulls who have been pressing the long side of late now have escalating doubts.  That’s likely to keep things volatile in the short-term, which means we should see some opportunities emerge in the days ahead – in both directions.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

broadcast-preview
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: JDSU, ANV, WDC, WSM

06012011-VS

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “56” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Hit List 6-1-2011

By Filed Under: Hit List

The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.

06012011-TL
trading-list-legend
FMC stopped, KKR stop tightened

Open Position Notes:

ARBA showed some nice early relative strength this morning as it challenged last week’s high, stopping just 1 cent shy of that level.  The stock returned to the flat line by mid-day, but the selling accelerated in the afternoon and this one crossed the finish line just about 1% from my raised stop.  I’d been giving this one some room for remaining shares to fluctuate and digest the recent run if needed, so for now I’m still in and waiting to see if it can stabilize.  If it can, I may look to make another adjustment to my stop at that point.

KKR held up extremely well today in the face of nonstop selling in the broader market, actually posting a minor gain on the session.  Yesterday’s lows were tested and held, and the stock simply spent the day in a trading range, apparently oblivious to the overall market weakness.  Despite the relative strength shown today in the stock, the overall market is showing weakness here so I’ve tightened my stop for this trade in case it happens to turn lower.  This will give it some room to move, but should it start to break down I’ll close it out for a minor loss and return to the sidelines.

0601-2011-PF

Closed Positions:

FMC struggled to hold its ground today, giving up the entirety of its multi-day bounce of the past few sessions to mark new correction lows.  The breach of support was what I had been looking to use as my stop, and today that was triggered to take me out of this trade with a minor 2.3% loss.  This stock now looks vulnerable to further weakness so I’ll stay away until a new pattern builds.

Bandit Broadcast for 5-31-2011

By Filed Under: Videos

Good evening StockBandits!

The holiday weekend apparently left many market participants gathered at cookouts and discussing the markets, as today we saw overseas strength invite additional buying pressure to kick off this shortened week.  An upside gap was initially greeted with a little profit-taking, however, erasing some of the morning enthusiasm.  The gap was only partially filled though, and we saw another spurt of buying this afternoon take the market out at its highs of the day.

Today’s strength not only put more distance between current prices and the support zones we bounced from last week, but it also served to clear some descending trend lines which had emerged from the recent highs.  That’s a positive technical event, even if additional levels of overhead still exist.

In looking through many charts this evening, I’m seeing quite a few stocks which now need to put in some rest.  That may or may not take place immediately, but if this rally is going to stick, it needs to happen sooner than later.  By the same token, it leaves me reluctant to put cash to work tomorrow as it feels like a bit of a chase at this point.  A little rest or even some mild profit-taking would be a very healthy thing for this market.  Once we see that occur, I would expect to see quite a few more swing setups emerging.

By the way, be sure to check out today’s position trade idea posted earlier in case you missed it.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

broadcast-preview
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: NOC, APKT, LNG, RIMM

05312011-VS

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “55” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Hit List 5-31-2011

By Filed Under: Hit List

The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.

05312011-list
trading-list-legend
KKR triggered

Open Position Notes:

ARBA gapped higher this morning but quickly came under pressure and went negative.  The stock found support intraday about $1 above my stop, and then stabilized from there.  It spent the rest of the session bound between the morning low and high, but I liked the late-day buying which took it back positive on the day  by the bell.  This stock continues to act well, and overall looks to be resting.  I’m sticking with my raised stop on my remaining shares after booking 1/2 profits last week at Target 1.

FMC struggled to the finish last Friday, but today it got back on track with a solid advance.  It stopped just shy of the prior high (set on 5/19), and backed off slightly from there.  Nonetheless, this stock is progressing alright, and I liked how volume returned today on the advance.  I’m going to stay patient with it for now, looking for at least a higher high and some more progress toward the targets before I look to make an adjustment.

KKR triggered a buy today as it cleared the descending trend line and made a multi-day high at $17.25.  Even though volume picked up with today’s action, it apparently wasn’t quite enough to really push it higher on the day, as it finished just a few cents from the trigger.  I’m going to stick with this one for now and see if it can gain some traction in the days ahead, as it may simply be a bit of a late bloomer and play catch up to the market in the next few sessions.

0531-2011-positions

Closed Positions:

No closed positions.

Position Trading Candidate 5-31-2011

By Filed Under: Position Trades

Hope your Tuesday’s going well StockBandits!

You’re used to seeing short-term trade ideas presented here, whether they are day trades or swing trades, but periodically I do put on positions which are intended to last longer. I typically don’t involve them in my main trading account, and instead leave them for my IRA.  These position trades are generally a bit slower-moving, meaning I don’t expect to monitor them real closely and they are likely to last at least several weeks.  I’ll be presenting these here periodically as they emerge.

Since these plays are longer-term positions and not ‘trades’ as typically defined here, they are not posted to the Hit List.  These are additional, longer-term ideas which are shared for your benefit.  I don’t at all mind updating the status of them or conversing (in the comments below) about how they’re behaving, but they will not get my daily attention and will not be updated regularly as such.

Now for the play…

Fads come and go, but some things are cool enough to outlive the bandwagon effect. One of those is the ongoing enthusiasm surrounding Harley Davidson motorcycles.

When it comes to motorcycles, on one end of the spectrum are there are the lightweight import ‘crotch-rocket’ bikes with incredible speed, and on the other end are the loud, heavy, chromed-out Harley Davidson street bikes for the leather-clad, bandana-and-shades wearing crowd. The Harley Owners Group (HOG) is a huge association of Harley enthusiasts, gathering daily all over the country. It’s a growing group, so much so that a few years ago the company changed its ticker symbol to HOG from the former HDI.

For some, the Harley lifestyle is a way of life they embrace 24/7. For others, it’s a separate persona they shift to after work or on the weekends, donning their chaps and black sleeveless shirts as they hit the streets to meet up with their biker brethren to share stories, make noise, and of course show off their rides. It brings people from all walks of life together, with the hobby transcending social status, race, or age. No matter who they are or where they’re from, they all love it, and they’re committed to the brand.

As for the stock itself, the past year has shown some real promise as well, tacking on 22% despite the market weakness which impacted the name early last summer. HOG trended higher from last summer into the early part of this year, before settling into a trading range from late-January to mid-April. It left that range to the downside a few weeks ago, and we’ve seen a series of lower highs created on the daily chart since then as bounce attempts have repeatedly been greeted with supply. As a result, prices have worked lower in search of support.

Over the past week, HOG has successfully tested the early-May low, which is encouraging. Looking closer, that’s the same area the stock contended with in mid-January (a key support level from which the stock rallied $7), as well as last spring (April resistance which marked a multi-month high). This $36 area is clearly a major level.

Given that the multi-week downtrend from the early-April high has become perhaps a bit too predictable, as well as the fact major support has been found, this stock could be looking at an upside reversal in the days ahead.

I like the defined risk this play offers from a technical standpoint, but also due to the psychological implications a turnaround in price could mean. Not only would shorts need to cover as they see this stock strengthen, but longer-term bulls could quickly come to embrace this as a turning point for the name and put more cash to work as higher prices become more likely.

Here are two looks at the HOG chart, along with my strategy for this play:

HOG-05312011

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

Here’s a bit closer look with my entry & exit parameters.

HOG2-05312011

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

As always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.  And FYI ~ earnings are due out July 18 according to Yahoo Finance.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Bandit Broadcast for 5-30-2011

By Filed Under: Videos

Good evening StockBandits!

Last week started out with some selling pressure, but support was found and some modest buying pressure emerged to produce a fair recovery.  On the week, the indexes shed just a few points (only the RUT was higher), offering limited follow through and a lack of lasting momentum.

Volume was expectedly light ahead of a major holiday 3-day weekend, and that also kept the price action pretty contained.  We might be in for a bit more of the same as we start this holiday-shortened trading week on Tuesday, as there will be some traders still on vacation, whether physically or mentally!

Looking at the daily charts of the indexes, we are seeing some descending trend lines after the short-term lower highs which have been set in recent weeks.  As we know, anytime the market starts to move predictably in that kind of fashion, the stage is being set for some kind of surprise.  Whether or not we see that this week remains to be seen, but suffice it to say we need to watch those descending trend lines closely.  It’s not out of the question that this market could turn higher from this relatively shallow pullback, so we need to leave our biases at the door.

I am encouraged by the charts of individual stocks I’m seeing.  Quite a few are working on some constructive patterns, so even if we see some quiet price action over the coming few days, that would only help those patterns to mature further.  My plan is to consider plays on both sides (long and short), and generally stay selective with new swings until we see some better momentum surface one way or the other.

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

broadcast-preview
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: RENN, GNOM, AET, WDC, ADSK, KKR

0530-2011-vid

Swing Trading Candidates:

KKR has pulled back in recent weeks from its highs, but has held above prior support.  I also like how this one has stabilized in recent days, even giving a bit of a potential shake-out move last Monday before recovering.  I’ll be a buyer if this one clears the trend line at $17.25, expecting a move back up to higher levels. As with all swing trades, my stop and target levels for this stock are on the Hit List here inside the Hideout.

KKR-05302011

Chart courtesy of TeleChart

[table “54” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Hit List 5-30-2011

By Filed Under: Hit List

The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.

0530-2011-List
trading-list-legend
ARBA Target 1 hit & stop tightened, FMC triggered, XEC removed (no trigger + pattern failure), KKR added

Open Position Notes:

ARBA continued higher on Friday, running through Target 1 where I closed 1/2 my position for a quick 5.6% gain.  The stock worked slightly higher from there, but profit-taking erased some of the day’s gains into the afternoon.  To see early strength fade on a Friday afternoon ahead of a long weekend isn’t out of the norm, and considering the light volume we saw all last week I’m willing to work with it.  I’ve raised my stop tonight for remaining shares while waiting for a push toward Target 2.

FMC triggered a buy on Friday as it cleared the descending trend line and turned up from support, but here again with light pre-holiday volume the stock just couldn’t hold onto its early momentum.  Ultimately, it finished right near the breakout zone, so I’m going to stick with my existing trade parameters as we head into next week and wait to see how it acts before jumping to conclusions.  I’d have liked to see a stronger finish, but that’s just what tends to happen on a pre-holiday Friday.

0530-2011-PF

Closed Positions:

No closed positions.

Bandit Broadcast for 5-26-2011

By Filed Under: Videos

Good evening StockBandits!

A sluggish start to the day was ultimately resolved to the upside today as the major indexes erased their early losses to finish higher.  The NAZ and RUT both trended quite well intraday to lead the way higher, while the DJIA and S&P posted modest gains.

Volume remained light, and with tomorrow being a Friday ahead of a 3-day weekend (market will be closed Monday for Memorial Day), we could see even less activity.  Schools are finishing, summer is arriving, and that simply pulls traders away from their screens temporarily this time of year.  With that in mind, I’d caution to tread lightly tomorrow, particularly as the afternoon sets in.  If there’s an absence of an intraday trend, it could quite easily stay choppy, which makes for a much tougher trading session.  Rather than churn commissions for your broker, be sure there’s some good momentum if you’re going to push buttons tomorrow!

With that said, this rebound from support is continuing to gain traction.  Quite a few stocks have pulled back into support zones and now have descending trend lines overhead which could serve as pivots for turns back up.  My focus for Friday will be on day trades (aside from the two untriggered stocks on the Hit List which I will still enter if they go), and then next week I’ll look at some additional swing setups if they’re still poised for moves.  Essentially, I don’t want to be adding much exposure on a pre-holiday Friday when volume is likely to sag.

Have a safe and fun Memorial Day weekend!

I’ll cover my game plan for tomorrow in the video, and as always, feel free to share your own thoughts, trade ideas, and questions down below in the comments section.

Here is tonight’s video:

broadcast-preview
The Bandit Broadcast Video – Click to Watch!

–

Video Stocks Discussed: SQNS, X, SWKS, COP, WDC

0526-2011-VS

Swing Trading Candidates:

NONE TONIGHT

[table “53” not found /]

The Hit List is a separate post which contains discussion on open positions and swing trade stops and targets, so be sure to check it for further details on swing trades.

Trade Like A Bandit!

Jeff

Hit List 5-26-2011

By Filed Under: Hit List

The Hit List is a look at our current swing trading positions. Stocks we are already in have “triggered”, while those we are considering for plays have not triggered. Click post title to view print-friendly link.

0526-2011-TL
trading-list-legend
ARBA stop tightened

Open Position Notes:

ARBA gapped lower this morning but rebounded quickly to fill it, then trended steadily higher for a few hours.  The pace of the advance stalled a bit late in the session, but the stock held up extremely well after today’s run.  Volume also picked up from yesterday’s levels, although it remained below average.  I tightened my stop for this trade tonight now that Target 1 is nearing, and I’ll look to tighten it more aggressively if and when the first target is reached.  I like the action here so far, and the stock now appears to have a good shot at moving back up within its short-term range.

0526-2011-PF

Closed Positions:

No closed positions.

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