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Defiant – Blueprint 10-14-2013

October 14, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

Columbus Day may have closed the banks, schools, and the bond market, but it certainly didn’t shut down the bulls today. [Read more…]

Trading the Same Stock Repeatedly

October 14, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Trader Improvement

trading-same-stockAmong active traders, there’s a bit of a split decision when it comes to trading the same stocks over and over.  Some are for it, trading only a few tickers out of familiarity, while others don’t necessarily see it that way.

Personally, I’m trading a very broad variety of stocks at any given time.  After closing out a position, it may be weeks or months before I’ll trade the same stock again, or it may only be hours or days.

It all depends on how it’s acting.

There’s nothing at all wrong with going back to the well for a repeat trade, provided two things are kept in mind:

– You have an entry designated, along with an exit plan (for both your stop and target levels).
– Your plan is based on price action (not simply because it’s been good to you in the past).

So long as you’re observing those two things, have at it.

Just be very careful returning to a stock you’ve recently traded because it’s easy to revenge trade if you recently took a loss in it, while it’s easy to be overly-hopeful if you’ve just booked a nice winner in that same stock.

With any trade, it’s crucial that you’re staying objective and have a plan in place.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to my Stock Pick Service to get my trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

Review of the Indexes 10-13-2013

October 13, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Index Charts

Last week we saw continued deterioration off the recent highs as the major averages slid lower on fears of a US debt default. Although no deal is yet in place, the market responded in hopes that a default could be avoided and prices spiked higher from their lows on Wednesday in violent fashion.  One has to wonder what happens once a deal actually gets announced, and whether prices are now poised for a sell-the-news reaction.

As we head into a new week of trading, it’s time once again to take a look at the indexes and the key levels they’re dealing with. This will impact how individual names move, so it’s where every new trading week begins.

NAZ – The NAZ has seen a pair of headfakes in the last 2 weeks:  one to the upside, and one to the downside. As the new trading week begins, this index sits some 28 points from its high but 141 points off its low from last week with a sizeable unfilled gap.

NAZ-10-13-2013

Why I Use TC2000

 

SP500 – The S&P vaulted higher by 57 points from the low on Wednesday to Friday’s closing bell.  That put an end to the persistent weakness we’ve seen, and may have carved out a higher low in the process.  Prior resistance at 1709 and 1729 are still overhead.

SP500-10-13-2013

Why I Use TC2000

 

RUT – The RUT spiked by 47 points from its low on Wednesday into Friday’s close, leaving the small-cap index just 3 points from its all-time high.  An unfilled gap is on the chart to the 1043 level, but it will be most interesting how this index gets treated as the highs are tested.

RUT-10-13-2013

Why I Use TC2000

 

DJIA – The DJIA had been the picture of a steady slide until last week when it incrementally broke the August low then vaulted 518 points into Friday’s closing bell.  This index is now in no man’s land as there isn’t a level anywhere near current prices.  On the way up is 15400, whereas the 14700 area has just held as support twice.

DJIA-10-13-2013

Why I Use TC2000

 

VIX – The VIX maintained its habit of only being able to hold above 20 for a very brief time last week as it chalked up a single close beyond that level before tanking back into the range, just like it did last December and then again in June.  Fear subsided quickly, but a US debt default could change that again quickly, so this is an index to keep on the radar this week.

VIX-10-13-2013

Why I Use TC2000

 

Take a trial of the Stock Pick Service to get my trades.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White

Follow @TheStockBandit

Groundhog Day – Blueprint 10-13-2013

October 13, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

Stocks spiked from their pullback lows last week with a modest relief rally Wednesday from oversold levels and then a huge gap-and-go lift on Thursday amid news that perhaps the debt ceiling could be pushed back 6 more weeks. [Read more…]

Swing Trading vs. Intraday Trading: Selecting Timeframe

October 10, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Trader Improvement

Probably the single most-often asked question of me pertains to determining the timeframe for a trade.  Once you find a quality chart pattern, how do you decide whether to take it for a swing trade or a day trade?

I never hesitate to provide an answer to this because it’s such a great question and one that every trader faces. Of course there’s no right or wrong way to determine this, but for me there are a few things which play a role in my decision.

First and foremost, anytime the market is generally choppy, I’m less-inclined to initiate new swing trades (multi-day trades).  As a result, during those times I’ll usually shorten my timeframe and go with intraday trades as a preferred timeframe.

When it boils down to just the charts though, for me it comes down to 2 major elements.

Quality of the Base

If the base isn’t quite completed or it looks like it needs more work, I’ll take the trade for a single-day play rather than a multi-day swing.  For example, an ascending triangle which isn’t yet completed (needs tightening) will entail a much wider stop loss.  In that type of situation, I’d prefer to participate in the initial breakout rather than hold for a larger move that may involve substantially more risk.

The history of the stock also plays a role here.  If XYZ has in recent months proven able to generate good follow-through from similar patterns, I’ll go with it for a swing.  However, if it tends to be a 1-day wonder type of stock, I’ll usually opt for the single-day play.

Here’s an example of a stock with a recent history of making 1-day moves as it clears key levels, making it better-suited for single-day plays rather than tying up capital for days or weeks at a time without reason to expect movement:

one-day-mover

Potential for a Sizeable Move Relatively Quickly

I want my capital tied up as briefly as necessary in order to get paid for the risk I’m taking.  So a sluggish stock has less appeal to me, knowing that I’ll have that capital committed for a potentially longer period of time and for a potentially smaller reward.

Additionally, if there’s resistance (key levels or prior relative highs) not far above the base in question, I’ll likely lean toward a single-day trade timeframe and just aim to capture the initial breakout.  Here’s an example of that with price challenging a recent level (blue) and a pair of prior levels (red) not far beyond which could interfere with lasting progress on the upside:

technical-overhead

For those who are able to watch the market intraday, single-day plays can prove supplemental as a cash-flow strategy.  Risk can be managed closely for those who aren’t prone to gambling or overtrading.  Intraday strategies can also provide the best approach during times of extreme volatility, when overnight gaps are happening frequently, or when high levels of cash are being maintained on an overnight basis.

Swing trading and position trading can tack on big gains quickly in an account when times are good, but having the flexibility to operate on multiple timeframes is an excellent way to diversify as a trader.

Finally, it’s imperative to understand the timeframe you most favor and seek to operate primarily on that timeframe.  If that’s intraday, do it.  If that’s on a multi-day basis or a multi-month basis, do it.  Know which style you favor and which style favors you, and aim to make the bulk of your trades on that timeframe. At the end of the day, we must all trade in accordance with what we’re comfortable with, and that’s something that only you can answer.

Related Posts:
Trading Timeframe Influences Position Size
Trading Roadblocks

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to my Stock Pick Service to get my trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

Shaky – Blueprint 10-9-2013

October 9, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

Once again today we saw a modestly higher open this morning unable to hold with the morning gap filling quickly and stocks coming under pressure. [Read more…]

High Beta Gives it Up – Blueprint 10-8-2013

October 8, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

The NAZ and RUT have held their ground incredibly well compared to the S&P 500 and DJIA, and I’ve been highlighting the discrepancies there. [Read more…]

Upside Streaks Nonexistent – Blueprint 10-7-2013

October 7, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Nightly Reports

Good evening StockBandits!

The lack of upside streaks in the key averages continued today as Friday’s strength found zero follow through. [Read more…]

Relative Range for a Stock

October 7, 2013 By Jeff White Filed Under: Trader Improvement

When it comes to the software I use with my trading, it’s important to me that not only does it meet my needs now, but that it’s constantly improving.

Two of the main software programs I use daily in my trading are TC2000, which keeps getting better, and TOS (which also keeps getting better).

Over the weekend, the latest update to TOS added a few items, but a couple of the Watchlist Column features stood out as particularly useful.

The first is a Range indicator, which allows you to see at a glance where a watchlist item (index, stock, future, etc.) stands in relation to the relative high and low for the Day or the Year.  In the example below, the first item is at 14.61%, which means it’s in the lower 1/7 of the Daily Range right now.  For the Year, however, it’s at 98.63%, which is to say it’s right near the high of the year (only 1.37% off the high).  This is very useful to quickly identify strength or weakness across a couple of key timeframes.

Another feature that was unique will apply to option traders, which is the ability to display the Extrinsic and Intrinsic value of an option at any moment.  Intrinsic value is the share price less the strike price for calls, or strike price less stock price for puts.  Extrinsic value shows the difference between the last price for an option and the intrinsic value.  Traders watching specific options can utilize this to see in a different light how much of an option’s value is ITM and how much of its value is being derived by time and volatility.

Here’s a look at the features:

WL-columns

It’s hard enough to find tools you trust with your trading, but when you do, make sure they’re built by people who are committed to continually making them better.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to my Stock Pick Service to get my trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

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