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Faking It

March 10, 2015 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

Jamie Foxx might suggest we Blame It on the Algo’s.

But no matter the cause, head-fake breakouts and breakdowns sure seem to be more common. Have you noticed?

Key levels get established and respected for weeks or months, then price makes a run at them, clearing them – but only temporarily. In many cases, we’re talking about breakouts/breakdowns of about 1% or less before the reversal sets in, and often by only a few cents.

Let’s look at a few examples where this has happened recently:

ABBV is doing it today, having undercut multi-month support by $0.40, less than 1%:

ABBV

Why I Use TC2000

BBY just did it on Friday, pushing 1.1% past the prior high, only to promptly fail. It still has a chance, but it’s a failure nonetheless:

BBY

Why I Use TC2000

COP broke key support on 1/29 by just $0.20 before rallying $9.47. Today it’s approaching that support again, which may or may not hold, but the initial fakedown led to a huge reversal.

COP

Why I Use TC2000

OXY cleared key resistance on 2/13 by $0.49, but only temporarily before rejection set in. It has since rolled right back over, and now is approaching the December low, a.k.a. the bottom end of its range.

OXY

Why I Use TC2000

PSX crossed key multi-month resistance on 2/25 by just $0.27 before rolling over more than $6 (and counting).

PSX

Why I Use TC2000

HES got within $0.01 of the December low in late-January (respect!), then rallied all the way back to the December high.  It cleared it by just $0.17 on 2/17.  It has since given up over $8 and is still declining.

HES

Why I Use TC2000

There are a couple of names on the table today trying to break down, so they’re worth watching to see if they will stick:

RIG already saw a false breakout on 2/9, only to sell off now for a solid month.  Today it’s undercutting the mid-January low, but will it stick?

RIG

Why I Use TC2000

XOM broke the December 2012 low today, but has repeatedly respected (and reversed from) this same zone. It’s off 9.5% since Feb. 13, leaving it a little short-term extended.

XOM

Why I Use TC2000

Note that the on-the-table breakdowns today are not being highlighted here as bullish ideas, but merely breakdowns which are underway through the same kinds of key levels.  They might hold the breakdowns  or accelerate lower, or the might reverse.  They’re merely examples of this in action right now.

Several of these names are energy stocks, but not all of them. And even among the energy names, we’ve seen false breakouts and breakdowns, so it isn’t as if there was one occasion where the entire sector unanimously head-faked a move.

This is just one of those things that has become more common, and therefore something to be aware of in your trading.

It begs the question: to play the break or not to play the break? There is no perfect answer, it’s trading we’re talking about!

If you play the break, you’ll catch some which go and never look back, while others will promptly reverse. So if you aim to play the key level breaks, one choice to consider is to make partial entries on the initial break and then add once you’ve gotten the kind of confirmation you like (ex: close beyond key level, pullback to test it, etc.).

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Check out the Stock Pick Service to get my trades.
Follow @TheStockBandit on Twitter

Drawing Conclusions on Trend Lines

February 26, 2015 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

I trade a lot of trend line breaks, but not all of them are equal.

Especially right now in what has been a pretty lethargic tape of late. Take for example the S&P 500, which has edged higher by roughly 1% since making an all-time high through 2093 less than 2 weeks ago.

Don’t get me wrong, this market isn’t weak, but 1%? In 2 weeks? After breaking out from a multi-month trading range? Hardly what I’d define as momentum.

Back to the trend line conversation though, I don’t treat them all alike. Discussing part of this yesterday with a fellow Bandit, I got to thinking about it and wanted to share a few thoughts.

The question I was asked revolved around descending trend lines in the current environment, and the fact that many stocks have been able to clear their respective descending trend lines but not power higher.

So, here are 3 situations where I’m currently giving trend line breaks a bit more validity:

Steep Descending Trend Lines. Generally, a steep trend line is indicative of some serious pressure on the stock, so once that is alleviated, it tends to spike a little better. Imagine being held underwater for a short time, then being set free to surface. You’d pop up quick if given the chance. In a quieter tape, favor these kinds of plays for short-term lifts.

steep_DTL

Momentum Before the Trend Line. By this, I mean I like when the stock has exhibited some nice momentum prior to the trend line forming, whether that trend line is lateral or descending. It’s a bigger-than-normal move ahead of the rest phase. I’ve noticed that those stocks tend to find better follow through once they get back on the move, as traders identify them as recent runners and don’t quickly cross them off their watch lists.

momentum_TL

Rhythmic Trend Line Breaks. A stock that has been moving in a recent rhythm is going to need something to interrupt that rhythm in order to stop. So unless that interruption has taken place, I expect more of the same. Look for similarly-sized rally phases, as well as rest phases of similar duration (___ days). Once the newest trend line gets crossed, it tends to find some traction.

rhythm_TL

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Follow @TheStockBandit

Have Oil Stocks Bottomed?

February 19, 2015 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

Lots of energy-related names out there turning heads. Not just catching a bid lately, but actually showing some (dare I say) accumulation. [Read more…]

5 Setups to Watch This Week

October 5, 2014 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

The early-August playbook is now back on the table as yet another V-shaped recovery becomes a possibility. The most recent pullback finally became short-term exhausted last week, and both bulls and bears have rushed in to produce bids.

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

ALNY isn’t far from resistance and a breakout would allow this stairstep pattern to continue with a new high.

ALNY

Why I Use TC2000

BDSI has channeled slightly lower in recent weeks but a push above the upper line may set it free for another run to continue the uptrend.

BDSI

Why I Use TC2000

MU is basing just beneath multi-month resistance so it belongs on breakout watch.

MU

Why I Use TC2000

WTW is coiling in a tightening pattern to digest the recent run, but a breakout could complete the gap fill from February.

WTW

Why I Use TC2000

RGLD is resting on support and a breakdown could quickly bring a test of the May low.

RGLD

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

5 Setups to Watch This Week

September 28, 2014 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

Things were spiced up last week with some more emotional moves in the tape, which should allow for much better trading if it continues – I’m excited about that!

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

VDSI has pulled back for a few days but a break of the small trend line allows the uptrend to resume.

VDSI

Why I Use TC2000

PANW has coiled for a few weeks now beneath the highs so I’m watching the trend line for a break to indicate it’s back in rally mode.

PANW

Why I Use TC2000

KSU is working on a bull pennant here and a turn up through the upper trend line would confirm the pattern.  The trend remains up.

KSU

Why I Use TC2000

ALNY is facing another lateral resistance level and a new high at $80.10 would start a new leg up.

ALNY

Why I Use TC2000

THRM could continue lower but if it turns back up and clears the trend line at $49, there’s ample room to bounce.

THRM

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

5 Setups to Watch This Week

September 21, 2014 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

The averages are giving mixed signals out there so it’s a time to eye trades on both sides of the tape.

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

KSU just rallied and is now attempting to rest. This could create a very nice flag or pennant in the next few days, so watch $123 for a new high to indicate it’s back on the move.

KSU

Why I Use TC2000

GPRO has carved out a high-level trading range measuring $8 in height. A new high at $71.60 is the number to watch.

GPRO

Why I Use TC2000

YELP is building a mid-level base after some recent weakness. A breakdown at $74.50 makes a new correction low and offers potential on the short side.

YELP

Why I Use TC2000

NFLX is wedging here to create a bear pennant. A break below $452 should invite more selling with room down below $420.

NFLX

Why I Use TC2000

VNET bounced back from its waterfall selloff but weak finishes in 3 of the last 4 sessions do not look encouraging. A break below $19.80 and there’s room on the short side.

VNET

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

5 Setups to Watch This Week

September 14, 2014 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

Stocks ended the week on a soft note, leaving the indexes right at some key short-term support areas. That could bring a (much-needed) shake-up this week, so stay on your toes out there.

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

TSLA has been acting well and this high-level base is simply a rest phase (note the light volume). A turn up through $285 and it’s back on the move to continue its uptrend.

TSLA

Why I Use TC2000

CTRP has pulled back within its rising channel but the trend is still up. It’s against support here with several points of room to rally, but a lower low at $62.50 would negate the bullish setup.

CTRP

Why I Use TC2000

CSX is building the handle portion of this cup & handle pattern, but needs a breakout to a new high at $31.75 to confirm the pattern.

CSX

Why I Use TC2000

APC is holding the lower end of the range here, giving $104 a level to trade against on the long side with room up to $113 if support holds.

APC

Why I Use TC2000

UHS is in danger of creating a lower high here and a break below rising support at $110.50 could invite more selling.

UHS

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

5 Setups to Watch This Week

September 7, 2014 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

The major averages finished Friday’s session just a few points from where they ended the prior week, which translated into a brief but much-needed rest in an extended tape.

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

FB has broken out of its trading range and a new high may allow for the $5 measured move to take place. This is closely tied to the price action in the NASDAQ, so any failure in the latter would quite likely affect this stock.

FB

Why I Use TC2000

LOCO is facing short-term resistance but a move through $37.80 would invite a test of the August high.

LOCO

Why I Use TC2000

DSKY is churning beneath key resistance but a new high at $22.50 would set it free for higher prices.

DSKY

Why I Use TC2000

LGF is sitting just beneath multi-week resistance. A push through $33.20 would allow some upside momentum to build.

LGF

Why I Use TC2000

AGCO is resting narrowly above key support here. A break below $47.60 would likely trigger sell stops and begin a new leg down to continue the trend.

AGCO

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

5 Setups to Watch This Week

September 1, 2014 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

Stocks attempted to rest last week, but simply slowed their pace. Despite the market being stretched, there are still a number of bullish setups to choose from if you look in the right places.

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

BITA has gone parabolic but each euphoric-looking high has only been met with mild pullbacks like this one. A turn north of $90 and it could see triple digits quickly.

BITA-9-1-2014

Why I Use TC2000

UNP is basing with a very nice clean bull flag pattern. Breakout would be above $106.50 as a new high is made.

UNP-9-1-2014

Why I Use TC2000

ARWR is coiling beneath multi-month resistance but a move through it gives this one lots of room to recover.

ARWR-9-1-2014

Why I Use TC2000

P is in pullback mode here but an upside break of this descending channel may invite a quick return to the $29 area.

P-9-1-2014

Why I Use TC2000

APC tried to break out last week from this high channel but initially failed. It’s facing another opportunity and a new high could do the trick.

APC-9-1-2014

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

5 Setups to Watch This Week

August 24, 2014 By Jeff White Filed Under: Stock Charts

The broad market is a bit extended, but there are still plays on the long side setting up.  It’s just a matter of staying selective.

I reserve my daily trading plan for members of the site, but I wanted to share 5 setups of interest with you as we head into a new week of trading.

Put them on your radar and keep assessing them daily. As setups are negated or fail, seek out some replacements. As setups confirm their patterns, observe their price and volume behavior closely to gauge whether or not they still have some gas in the tank.

By the way, I do not have any positions in the stocks listed and am only interested in entries beyond the highlighted levels. Should price fail to push beyond the levels listed, I’ll take no action.  Price provides the proof, then I make an entry. Here we go:

TWTR has pushed past short-term resistance and next could challenge $48, the July high.

TWTR-8-24-2014

Why I Use TC2000

JCP is trying to clear the November high but a break above $10.55 opens the door for a move back above $12, support from a year ago.

JCP-8-24-2014

Why I Use TC2000

JD continues to trend higher and is currently resting. A new high at $31.90 sets it free to climb again.

JD-8-24-2014

Why I Use TC2000

CELG broke through $90.50 resistance and that has turned into support, providing a level to trade against on the long side.

CELG-8-24-2014

Why I Use TC2000

LULU has formed higher lows since June and a push through $40.80 would invite a gap fill to $42.60 from early July .

LULU-8-24-2014

Why I Use TC2000

 

Through the nightly service, I share swing trade setups with members here including my planned entry, stop, and target levels. Check out the trial if you’d like to kick the tires.

Trade Like a Bandit!

Jeff White
Take a trial to our Stock Pick Service to get our trades.

Follow @TheStockBandit

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